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ANALYSIS How Boris Johnson (and Dominic Cummings) blew up the opposition’s plan to block a no-deal Brexit

3 min read

With the shock announcement that Boris Johnson is to ask the Queen to prorogue Parliament, the Prime Minister has thrown the almightiest of spanners in the plans of those opposed to a no-deal Brexit.


By planning to shut down the House of Commons ahead of a new Queen’s Speech on 14 October - barely a fortnight before Brexit day - he has backed MPs into a corner and shut down their options.

What Mr Johnson and his senior advisor Dominic Cummings, whose fingers are all over this new plan, fear most is a legislative mechanism which binds their hands and forces them into extending Article 50.

At the meeting on Tuesday of opposition party leaders in Jeremy Corbyn’s office they agreed they needed something with a “legal edge” to be fail-safe against no-deal.

By proroguing Parliament the PM all-but removes that possibility by truncating the time available in the Commons to achieve that.

The only sitting days would be next Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday before a potential suspension of proceedings from the following week.

And with Chancellor Sajid Javid’s conveniently-timed spending review planned slap bang in the middle of it, there will be even less opportunity to take hold of the order paper and try to pass a beefed-up version of the Cooper-Letwin bill which was used to force Theresa May into the last Brexit extension.

So the only realistic avenue left to MPs opposed to no-deal is to pass a motion of no confidence as soon as possible, despite opposition parties agreeing this week to put that option on the back-burner.

But by doing so they very well may be playing right into Number 10’s hands.

'A BOLD, HIGH-STAKES STRATEGY'

If they fail to muster the numbers (which speaking to MPs this week is a distinct possibility), then Mr Johnson’s position is hugely strengthened.

And it also gives the PM a big boost in his quest for a last-minute deal with Brussels at the EU council meeting on 17-18 October, with a brief window to get it passed before the Hallowe’en deadline.

Or more likely, the opposition MPs and Tory rebels unite to pass a motion of no confidence and force a snap election before October 31.

This would allow the Conservatives stand on a platform of an iron-clad pledge to take the UK out of the EU on October 31 no ifs no buts, thereby potentially nullifying the threat from Nigel Farage and the Brexit party.

It is a bold, high-stakes strategy, which also concedes Mr Johnson’s own current Parliamentary weaknesses, and if it fails to come off his nascent premiership will be killed off almost instantaneously.

But if he was to pull it off he could deliver Brexit and gain the stonking majority he needs in double-quick time.

And it means next week in Parliament could be the most constitutionally-important in decades. Strap in.

Read the most recent article written by Alain Tolhurst - Tory MP Says Government Has ‘Broken Its Promises’ On Banning Conversion Therapy

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