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Wednesday 13th April 2011 | 12:44
Today's YouGov poll on AV, shows that in just four days, the "No" campaign has turned a deadlocked race into one in which it leads by 7 points.
Part of this is, as Mike Smithson has discussed, due to turnout weighting. 18-24 year olds, among whom "Yes" still leads by 11 points, have seen their likelihood to vote fall in the latest poll.4 days ago, 56% saw of this age group saw themselves as at least 90% likely to vote on 5th May – this has now fallen by 10 points to 46%. A similar story apply for 25-39 year olds, among whom "Yes" leads by 13 points.
Most interestingly however, is the collapse of the "Yes" lead among Labour voters, with "No" surging by a phenomenal 10 points.
Early on, the campaign highlighted Labour voters as the swing group in this election, trying hard to frame the vote as a referendum on Nick Clegg. On 18th March, a YouGov poll found that 29% of Labour voters said Nick Clegg’s support for AV made them more likely to vote "No", while just 17% of Labour voters saw David Cameron’s support opposition to AV as making them more likely to vote "Yes".
The "No" campaign’s messaging around Nick Clegg may be paying off.
Some Labour voters may also have picked up this piece by Channel 4 that it would be the party they support, not the Conservatives, who would lose out under AV.