PoliticsHome | Only the latest five entries on the PhiWire are visible to non-subscribers
- Sign up to see last 24 hours
The Political Pulse
Latest opinion research and analysis from Mark Gettleson
Wednesday 13th April 2011 | 12:44
'No' Campaign's Labour strategy paying off
Today's YouGov poll on AV, shows that in just four days, the "No" campaign has turned a deadlocked race into one in which it leads by 7 points.
Part of this is, as Mike Smithson has discussed, due to turnout weighting. 18-24 year olds, among whom "Yes" still leads by 11 points, have seen their likelihood to vote fall in the latest poll.4 days ago, 56% saw of this age group saw themselves as at least 90% likely to vote on 5th May – this has now fallen by 10 points to 46%. A similar story apply for 25-39 year olds, among whom "Yes" leads by 13 points.
Most interestingly however, is the collapse of the "Yes" lead among Labour voters, with "No" surging by a phenomenal 10 points.
Early on, the campaign highlighted Labour voters as the swing group in this election, trying hard to frame the vote as a referendum on Nick Clegg. On 18th March, a YouGov poll found that 29% of Labour voters said Nick Clegg’s support for AV made them more likely to vote "No", while just 17% of Labour voters saw David Cameron’s support opposition to AV as making them more likely to vote "Yes".
The "No" campaign’s messaging around Nick Clegg may be paying off.
Some Labour voters may also have picked up this piece by Channel 4 that it would be the party they support, not the Conservatives, who would lose out under AV.
Related News
Latest from the Political Pulse
- The Knowledge
- The Knowledge
- The Knowledge
- The Knowledge: No Balls Games
- The Knowledge: A headache for Cameron
- The Knowledge: False dawn at Eastleigh?
- The Knowledge: Eastleigh Questions
- The Knowledge: Mods and Ruckus
- The Knowledge: Cameron's Gamble
- The Knowledge: Benefits
- The Knowledge: EU and me, always?
- The Knowledge: Nailed to the mast
- The Knowledge: Trusting austerity?
- The Knowledge: UKIP if you want to
- The Knowledge: A matter of pact
- The Knowledge: Troubled by low turnouts
- The Knowledge: A State of change
- Education Select Committee Report: Review
- The Knowledge: Closing the campaign
- The Knowledge: Low turnout ahead
- The Knowledge: Ohio in focus
- The Knowledge: The Cameron Conundrum...
- The Knowledge
- Left or Right?
- The Gay Marriage Distraction?
- Tories should focus on PM Ed Miliband
- What flavour is the doughnut?
- Tories sour to Osborne
- A Tory Pushmi-Pullyu Budget?
- Romney's Red State Blues
- How can Lib Dems avoid oblivion?
- Towards Conservative Hegemony?