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Saturday 15th December 2012 | 19:30
UKIP has risen to 14 per cent, its highest ever rating in a ComRes poll, in an exclusive survey for The Independent on Sunday tomorrow, shared with the Sunday Mirror. Labour enjoys an 11-point lead and the Lib Dems have fallen to fourth place, five points behind the party led by Nigel Farage.
Conservative 28% (-3)
Labour 39% (-4)
UKIP 14% (+6)
Lib Dem 9% (-1)
Others 9% (+1)
(Changes since last month's ComRes online poll<http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2012/11/17/more-europe-trouble-for-cameron/>; vote shares add up to 99% due to rounding.)
Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes, commented:
"The Conservatives are leaking votes to UKIP - one in five (19%) of the party's 2010 voters say that they now intend to vote UKIP. There is good evidence that many UKIP voters are erstwhile Conservatives on the rebound: large proportions are negative about David Cameron and George Osborne on the economy, and about Mr Cameron's handling of gay marriage."
David Cameron is turning out to be a good Prime Minister
Agree 27% (-2 since October) Disagree 52% (+2) Net agree -25
Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party
Agree 24% (-5) Disagree 43% (+3) Net agree -19
Nick Clegg is turning out to be a good leader of the Liberal Democrats
Agree 14% (-4) Disagree 62% (+6) Net agree -48
I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy
Agree 25% (-1 since October) Disagree 55% (+4) Net agree -30
I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy
Agree 21% (-3) Disagree 52% (+3) Net agree -31
Most respondents were gloomy about their economic prospects: 57% expecting "my family to be worse off over the coming year".
But one measure in the Autumn Statement was well received. We asked if people agreed or disagreed with the following:
The Chancellor, George Osborne, is right to cut most state benefits by 1% a year for the next three years, in real terms (taking inflation into account)
Agree 42% Disagree 36% Don't know 22%
Other polls with differently worded questions have produced sharply different findings on this subject<http://hopisen.com/2012/welfare-rise-polling-pick-your-own-reality/>. YouGov found that 52% thought benefits should rise by less than inflation or not at all. Ipsos MORI found that 59% said benefits should rise with inflation.
We also asked if people agreed or disagreed with the following statements about the economy:
The Government should increase spending on public services
Agree 47% Disagree 25% Don't know 28%
The Government should cut public spending to reduce the deficit
Agree 32% Disagree 40% Don't know 28%
These statements suggest that public support for balancing the budget is weakening, with nearly half of respondents wanting public spending to be raised. Although 16% of respondents in the survey agreed with both "the Government should increase spending on public services" and "the Government should cut public spending to reduce the deficit".
However, more people blame the euro crisis for our economic difficulties than the Government's policy of deep cuts in public spending:
The recovery is taking longer than expected mainly because the Government is cutting spending too deeply
Agree 45% Disagree 28% Don't know 27%
The recovery is taking longer than expected mainly because of the problems in the eurozone
Agree 55% Disagree 19% Don't know 26%
I expect my family to be worse off over the coming year
Agree 57% Disagree 23% Don't know 20%
I plan to spend less on Christmas this year than last year
Agree 54% (-7 since November 2011) Disagree 34% (+8)
I expect the economy will start showing signs of improvement soon
Agree 25% (-5 since October) Disagree 52% (+4)
David Cameron is showing leadership by pressing ahead with a law to allow gay marriage even though some people in his own party oppose it
Agree 34% Disagree 44% Don't know 22%
Among current Conservative voters, 46% agree but 31% disagree. Among 2010 Conservative voters, only 36% agree while 46% disagree. The most notable opposition is among UKIP voters - 19% think David Cameron is showing leadership on this issue but 74% disagree.
The increase in donations to food banks shows that the British public are more compassionate than they used to be
Agree 48% Disagree 22% Don't know 30%
I currently boycott the products or services of some companies because they do not pay their fair share of tax
Agree 34% Disagree 50% Don't know 16%
ComRes interviewed 2,002 GB adults online between 12 and 14 December 2012. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults and by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.