Will there be a surprise deal for the NHS in the Autumn Statement?
Adam Wright, Political Consultant
| Dods Monitoring
"The new Prime Minister simply doesn’t want to touch health with a barge poll" says political consultant Adam Wright, giving his take on what Theresa May has in store for the health sector.
The biggest crisis facing the NHS is finally transcending party politics and entering the mainstream political discourse. It’s not rampant privatisation or health tourism; it’s that the NHS is facing the largest financial crisis in a generation.
Monday’s letter from the Health Select Committee to the Chancellor called for more money to be made available to support the long-term sustainability of the NHS. The cross party signatories called for further capital resources, increased social care provision and a review of the NHS funding settlement for the middle years of the spending review.
Perhaps most damning of all, however, was the respected Conservative chair of the Health Select Committee, Dr Sarah Wollaston, joining the shadow health secretary in the Commons in condemning the Government’s continued claim that £10bn had been made available for additional health spending up to 2020-21.
Of course, none of this is news for the healthcare sector. The (now bearded) Blairite-turned-Cameroon chief of the NHS, Simon Stevens, has repeatedly called for more funding, and has gently but consistently refuted the Government’s claims that it matched the money asked for in the Five-Year Forward View.
Steven’s political capital, however, held higher value with Cameron and Osborne, and like many non-politicals who were close to that regime, he now finds himself left out in the cold following Theresa May’s ascension to Number 10. Last month the Prime Minister was reported to have told Stevens and NHS Improvement’s Jim Mackey that the service would not be receiving any increased funding in the short term.
It was once thought that May left Jeremy Hunt in post in order to see through the junior doctors’ contact dispute; the situation had become so toxic and his personal brand so vilified, that he was best suited to clean up the mess, after which he could be on his way.
It’s seemingly becoming more likely, however, that the new Prime Minister simply doesn’t want to touch health with a barge poll. Four months into the role and May still hasn’t appointed a health advisor. This lack of interest in the subject was exposed during August when Number 10 came under fire after it published the heavily watered down Childhood Obesity Strategy. More recently, May reportedly suggested the NHS follow the example set by the Home Office and Ministry of Defence in following strict efficiency programmes. For someone who purportedly thrives on details this is an extraordinarily simplified position to take.
Despite all of this, May has revealed a penchant for centrist, interventionist policies, and none would be more universally popular than a surprise cash boost for the NHS. For someone who cares or understands so little about the health sector, might the easiest option be to simply open up the check book?
May has continually “looked again” at decisions made by her predecessor, and she clearly likes to shift positions when the heat is on, as with Hinkley Point C and last week’s Nissan Brexit deal. The mounting pressure to give more money to the NHS might force her to change her mind once again.
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