We must act urgently to stop Iran producing a nuclear bomb
4 min read
The UK and its allies are running out of time to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
With the world’s attention focused on the devastating war that began on 7 October 2023, Iran has been accelerating its nuclear programme, deliberately getting within touching distance of a bomb.
As a new policy paper published by Labour Friends of Israel argues, 2025 is a critical year to stop it. The UK is a signatory to the 2015 nuclear deal and has a particular responsibility. We must now give this issue the attention it deserves.
The Joe Biden administration tried diplomacy – attempting to restore the JCPOA agreement abandoned by Donald Trump. Iran rejected this. Since 2019 it has been openly abandoning the agreed restrictions on its programme, developing capabilities that have no civilian purpose, to the increasing alarm of the IAEA.
In 2022, the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security assessed Iran’s nuclear breakout time to be zero. That means Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear device at any time. Refining its existing stocks of highly enriched uranium to enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb would barely take a week, using a few advanced centrifuges in its heavily fortified Fordow facility.
Since then, it has been pushing further with its programme. Fashioning a nuclear bomb is now reckoned to be achievable within six months. Warheads carried on the same missiles that recently struck Israel would take 1-2 years. Iran already has acquired the knowledge, and much of the work could be done in secret, meaning we might not know until it’s too late.
More worrying still, whereas once Iranian policymakers denied any intent to develop nuclear weapons, some now call for it openly. Iran’s regional power has been set back by Israel through the defeat of Hezbollah, the degrading of Hamas, and the damage to Iran’s air defences. Meanwhile, Iran faces increasing domestic unrest from a population that wants rid of clerical rule. It may therefore seek to compensate by going for nuclear weapons.
The UK has an overwhelming interest in stopping this. Dominated by the IRGC ideological vanguard, the regime in Tehran is committed to exporting its Islamist radicalism and expelling Western influence from the Middle East, an agenda that overlaps with those of Russia and China. It also wants to stop any chance of diplomatic progress between Israelis and Palestinians or Israeli-Arab normalisation and, ultimately, destroy Israel. As well as threatening Israel and the UK’s Arab allies, it threatens international shipping, energy supplies, and Western military bases. Meanwhile in Europe, it is arming Russia with missiles and drones and plotting to kill and kidnap people in the UK.
With the deterrence and prestige of nuclear weapons, Iran will be further emboldened. This explains why Saudi crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman said if Iran gets nuclear weapons his country will too, threatening a nuclear arms race and the collapse of the non-proliferation regime.
For Israel the threat is intolerable. Analysts can debate whether Iran would be rational and avoid using nukes against a country with a believed capacity to respond, or whether messianic fervour makes it irrational. Israelis cannot afford to find out. Even a single nuclear strike would be existential. After Israel destroyed much of Iran’s air defences in October, in retaliation for an Iranian missile attack, Israelis have increasingly called for a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and Netanyahu will be pressing Trump to assist.
There is a consensus between the E3 states and the US on the need to respond to Iran’s nuclear escalation. As Keir Starmer told the House in October, “We must ensure that Iran cannot possibly get weapons. The sanctions, and the regime around them, must be geared towards that central issue.”
And 2025 is pivotal. October is the deadline in the JCPOA for any signatory – including the UK – to trigger the snapback mechanism that would reimpose nuclear related UN sanctions lifted by the deal.
So, what should the UK do?
We should build a common font between the E3, G7 and the US on tightening up sanctions, especially on Iranian oil shipments to China – its economic lifeline.
In the UK, the government should help isolate Iran and meet its threats by fulfilling our commitment to proscribe the IRGC.
Working with our E3 allies we should stand ready to implement the snapback mechanism if Iran does not immediately change course.
And finally, we must strengthen the multilateral alliances between the US, our European and Arab allies, and Israel, to deter Iran from nuclear breakout, or further regional escalation. The government should echo the words of Gordon Brown who, in relation to Iran’s nuclear programme, suggested in 2009 that he “did not rule out anything.”
We are running out of time. If we fail to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons now, its threat will be far greater in the future.
Jon Pearce MP is the Labour MP for High Peak and parliamentary chair of Labour Friends of Israel.
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