Major new poll finds support for Labour collapsing as Brexit Party threatens Tory majority hopes

Posted On: 
8th November 2019

A major new poll has found support for Labour is collapsing across the country, while growing backing for the Brexit Party threatens Boris Johnson’s chances of securing a majority.

The Conservative have secured a lead over Labour in a series of Labour heartlands

The latest study from YouGov of over 11,500 voters has given the Conservatives a lead in every English region apart from London and the North East, despite support for both main parties dropping across the country.

The figures will come as a boost for Boris Johnson, whose party now leads the polls in former Labour heartlands, including the North West and Yorkshire & the Humber.

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The Conservative lead in the regions are driven by plummeting support for Jeremy Corbyn’s party, who have dropped 25 points in the North West to 30%, leaving the Conservatives with a narrow three point lead. In Yorkshire the same pattern has handed the Tories a five point lead.

Labour have retained their lead in the North East with 32% support, down from 55% in 2017. Meanwhile, the Tories have dropped eight points since the last election to 26%. The region also has the highest support for the Brexit Party across the country, with 19% of voters backing Nigel Farage’s party.

The figures also show a boost in support for the Liberal Democrats, whose anti-Brexit message has driven up their poll numbers in almost every region across the country.

In London, which voted heavily to Remain, the party have secured a ten-point boost to 19%, while Labour remain the largest party on 39% despite a 16-point slump since 2017.

Brexit Party

Despite claims from Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage that his party would scoop votes in areas with a high proportion of Leave voting Labour supporters, the figures show the insurgent group could derail Boris Johnson’s hopes of securing a majority as rising support for the party eats into narrow Conservative majorities.

However, the polling, carried out between 17 October and 4 November will fail to reflect the impact of a disastrous start to Boris Johnson’s campaign which saw Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns resign, and senior Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg forced to apologise over comments made about the Grenfell Tower fire.

Meanwhile, the figures also point to a resurgent SNP presence in Scotland, with the party increasing their vote share by five points to 42% as Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon pledged to push forward with a fresh independence referendum.

In Wales, Labour support has plummeted from 49% to 29%, leaving them just one point ahead of the Conservatives on 28%, while the Brexit Party sit on 15%.

The figures come as Boris Johnson hopes to convince voters his party can push through his new-look Brexit deal despite failing in his “do or die” pledge to exit the bloc by 31 October.

Meanwhile, Labour have committed to securing a fresh Brexit deal which they would put back to voters in a referendum within six month of winning the election.