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ANALYSIS: Also-rans battle for second place as Boris Johnson moves closer to Number 10

Kevin Schofield | PoliticsHome

@KevinASchofield

3 min read Partner content

Better start preparing yourself, folks. Because short of an unforeseen calamity befalling his campaign - and of course that cannot be ruled out - Boris Johnson is heading for Number 10.


His thumping victory in the first Tory leadership ballot took even some of his supporters by surprise. The 114 votes he received are already enough to see him safely into the final run-off, and that total is only going to rise.

With the 20 votes collected by defeated Brexiteers Andrea Leadsom and Esther McVey now up for grabs, plus the 10 accrued by Mark Harper, there's a decent chance that Johnson will score at least 130 in Tuesday's ballot.

Could he even be tempted to allow some of his supporters to lend their votes to others in the next round?

"I think that is an unwise strategy," one of his team told journalists outside Committee Room 14. "Once you have a supporter on board, you hug them close and don't let them go."

The real interest is now in the race for second place. And while Jeremy Hunt currently occupies that spot, his team will be feeling nervous that he only won the backing of 43 MPs, even if one of them was probably Theresa May.

A spokesman for his campaign said: "We are delighted with the boost in support Jeremy has received from colleagues. This is testament to the campaign he has run.

"He has been honest about the challenges we face delivering Brexit. He set out a clear plan for how he will deliver Brexit and why he is the only person who can get a deal. He also has an inspiring vision for the country post Brexit. We will now work to build on the momentum ahead of the next ballot."

Given the horrendous few days he had in the wake of his cocaine confession, Michael Gove will be happy that he actually increased his support from 34 to 37, but Dominic Raab and Sajid Javid's campaigns appear to have stalled, despite heroic spin from Rob Halfon MP, who claimed the Home Secretary had come "a strong 5th".

Matt Hancock's natural enthusiasm will also have taken a dent after he received just 20 votes, although one of his leading supporters, Damian Green, insisted it was "game on".

"We were told Matt had 16 but he got 20, so that's better than expected and we've beaten Rory," he said. "But frankly everyone who's qualified up to Jeremy Hunt is now in a battle for second place.

"I'm sure conversations will be taking place as we speak, but because it's so close it wouldn't surprise me if everyone went through to Tuesday because the battle for the (second) slot is up and running - it's absolutely on."

Ah yes, Rory Stewart. The insurgent candidate received 19 votes, 12 more than the number of MPs who had previously declared for him.

He's still an outside bet to make it to the final two - and may not even survive past next Tuesday - but he can geuinely claim to have the wind in his sails.

But it doesn't look as though anyone will be able to blow Boris Johnson off course.

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