NEW PoliticsHome By-election Breakdown 16th November
PoliticsHome looks at this week's local by-elections and predicts who's in, who's out, who's lost the plot.
Last week on the third edition of this feature we got a clean sweep predicting all five results correctly. This week there are ten seats up for grabs, so we are going to struggle to repeat the 100% success rate, but we will give it a go.
Chiltern DC, Penn & Coleshill ward (Conservative resigned - 2 candidates: Con, LD)
Election results 2011:Con 1477/1311, LD 484
Election results 2015 Con x2 unopposed
Look at those numbers. We aren’t even going to bother.
Prediction: Conservative Hold
Darlington UA, Mowden ward (Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green)
Election result 2015: Con 1172/1090, Lab 798/586, UKIP 373, Green 186.
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Darlington UA, Redhall & Lingfield ward (Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Ind)
Election result 2015: Lab 831/770, Con 515/464, Green 222,LD 212
Double trouble in Darlington with two seats up for grabs. We can't see either of these seats changing hands due to the lamentable turnout expected in by elections at this time of year. Perhaps it was a sneaky strategic move to combine them on the same day, because as well as reducing the admin and ballot counting costs for the local authority, it keeps both main parties tied up defending their own territory.
Prediction: Conservative Hold & Labour Hold
Eden DC, Penrith North Ward (Liberal Democrat resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green)
Election results 2011: LD 783/532, Con 574, Ind 499. Lab 304
Election results 2015: LD 1087/909, Con 773/746/742, Lab 606
A fellow by-election geek informs us ahead of this contest “Cumbria is weird, so difficult to predict”. And we know what they mean for there can’t be many counties which contain marginal seats for three different parties. Nonetheless let’s give it a shot.
The last month has seen some tasty results for the Lib Dems, with a few surprise gains, so we think this could well stay yellow.
The Lib Dems are fielding Mark Rudhall, who’s excellent moustache makes him one of life’s winners, even if he doesn’t gain this seat. Predictably, the Lib Dems are heavily featuring one of their dodgy dyscalculiac bar charts.
There is a whiff of desperation from the local Labour party who have sent out an URGENT CALL FOR HELP to local activists who they would like to assemble in a nearby graveyard….Hopefully not a metaphor for their chances in this seat.
The video is also well worth a watch if you are into cobbled together Windows Media Player specials from circa 2009.
Prediction: Lib Dem Hold
Fylde BC, Staining & Weeton ward (Conservative resigned 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD)
Election results 2011: Con 582/475, Ind 358, Lab 242, Green 96
Election results 2015: Con 971/746, Lab 531
The rural ward in the Lancashire seat of Fylde on the outskirts of Blackpool looks like a comfortable hold for the Tories. We wonder how many Labour activists from Blackpool will wander over and lend a hand here or get on those phones to get out the vote? Probably not enough.
Prediction: Conservative hold
Hartlepool UA, Victoria ward (Labour resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP)
Election results 2012: Lab 753/745/737, PHF 364/322/312, UKIP 166, Con 146/133, LD 97/77 Ind 87
Election results 2014: Lab 731, PHF 517, Con 145, LD 63
Election results 2015: Lab 1264, UKIP 696, PHF 461, Con 345, Green 213
Election results 2016: Lab 727, UKIP 421, Con 169, Green 104
We can recall when Hartlepool was a marginal constituency with the Lib Dems getting within 2,000 votes of Labour in a 2004 by-election here and in 2015 UKIP (remember them?) got within 3,000 votes of taking it as well. Labour now appears to have got its proverbial stuff together here and it now has a majority over the Tories of 7,650.
From the numbers above in 2015 and 2016 and with a new MP Mike Hill keen to bed in here following on from Iain Wright and Peter Mandleson (whatever happened to him?) we think Labour will comfortably hold on to Victoria Ward. It will be an interesting test for UKIP and its new leader Henry Bolton - who we are told can chase a badger across Dartmoor and break its neck with his bare hands upon request - if it can even cling onto second place in a ward like this. We are not so sure.
Prediction: Labour Hold
South Holland DC, Whaplode & Holbeach St Johns ward (Conservative died - 2 candidates: Con, Lab)
Election results 2011: Con 849/727, Ind 537
Election results 2015: Con 1270/1232, UKIP 969
Whilst the substantial UKIP vote here last time was impressive, they are not standing in this byelection (plus UKIP councillors are SO 2013) and by our reckoning Labour has not stood in this ward at any point in the last 15 years. We suspect Labour is unlikely to be able to take this seat off the Tories.
Prediction: Conservative hold
Waveney DC, Kirkley ward (Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP)
Election results 2011: Lab 783/719/712, LD 496/431, Con 555/295/252, Green 293, UKIP 248
Election results 2015: Lab 1272/1150/1097, Con 735/533/509, UKIP 704, Ind 543, Green 320/320
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Waveney DC, St Margarets ward (Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP)
Election results 2011: Lab 1051/1037/1024, Con 858/707/675, UKIP 375, Green 269 , LD 208
Election results 2015: Lab 1680/1491/1462, Con 1379/1273/979, UKIP 1200, Green 359/291
These 2 by-elections in the north eastern corner of Suffolk take place on either side of the River Waveney which gives its name to this local authority and with the exception of four wards which fall into the neighbouring seat, to the Westminster seat created in 1983.
Both wards contested this week (Kirkley and St Margarets) are Labour seats close to the centre of Lowestoft (the UK's most easterly settlement, who knew?) and should be comfortable holds. The Conservatives are better placed to gain the St Margaret seat from the 2015 results listed above.
All the local parties in this seat have been fairly quiet on social media, but an inquisitive dig into Waveney Labour’s Instagram has unearthed some fairly reprehensible meme’s from a previous by-election.
Prediction: Labour Hold x 2
West Lindsey DC, Sudbrooke ward (Conservative resigned - 2 candidates: Con, Lab)
Election results 2011: Con 860, Lab 289
Election results 2015: Con 1121, Lab 324, LD 181
We cross the finishing line of this marathon by-election list in the picturesque Lincolnshire village of Sudbrooke, where we are betting on a Conservative Hold. Bob Waller, renowned for his monthly village hall quiz, is not resting on his laurels, and has been out pounding the pavements with local MP Sir Edward Leigh, and an *ahem* experienced Conservative team.
Prediction: Conservative Hold
We have predicted 16/18 seats correctly.
A massive credit goes to our fellow council by-election fanatics on the Vote UK Forum where we got our previous vote totals from.
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