Pupil numbers are reducing, but not as much as we thought. Why does it matter?
The Department for Education has forecast a drop in pupil numbers for several years, but the latest figures suggest that numbers will drop less than previously expected. This will have consequences for government and school funding nationally and regionally.
In January 2024, there were 7.95 million pupils (up to age 16) in state-funded schools in England. Every year the DfE estimates the number of pupils in years to come. It has consistently forecast a steep decrease in pupil numbers from around 2022 onwards. Pupil numbers are largely driven by the birthrate, meaning this trend will affect primary schools first, before moving through into secondary schools at some point after 2028.
Primary pupil numbers have dropped by about 85,000 since 2019, but the projections released in July 2024 threw us a curve ball. The DfE reduced its estimate for the fall in primary pupil numbers between 2023 and 2028 from nine per cent to 5.2 per cent (a difference of around 175,000 children).
Why does this matter? Well, the government, local authorities and schools rely on these projections for their forward planning.
Importantly, school funding is strongly linked to pupil numbers. Fewer pupils is good news for the government because it frees up money to spend on other pressing priorities. But it’s less good news for schools as fewer pupils are likely to mean less funding and it can be hard for schools experiencing smaller intakes to cut an entire class. This means they will find it difficult to reduce their staffing – which makes up the lion’s share of a school’s expenditure – and so will struggle to balance the books.
So far we’ve been focusing on national averages, but trends in pupil numbers inevitably play out differently at local level. The DfE does not issue regional or local projections, but our analysis finds that seven of the nine English regions have already experienced a drop in the number of primary pupils between 2017/18 and 2022/23, with London experiencing the greatest decline, followed by Yorkshire and the Humber and the South West. In contrast, the West Midlands and the East of England saw their primary pupil numbers rise slightly during the same period.
What does this mean for policy?
There are a number of takeaways from this.
First, as fewer pupils means less funding could be allocated to schools than last year from the overall education ‘pot’, the DfE could have some additional budget available in the future, although not as much as might have been expected based on previous years’ predictions. On the other hand, more schools are likely to slip into deficit as their funding is reduced.
Second, despite the changes in forecast, local school place planners will still need to ensure that capacity mirrors demand, with sufficient flexibility to allow for parental choice and the ability to respond to local needs. Fewer pupils means school capacity will need to reduce and we are likely to see schools close as a result.
Third, the unprecedented change in projections shows we are entering a period of significant uncertainty which means that clear communication and insights from DfE will be particularly important. To support this, we are calling on the department to provide predictions at local, or at least regional, level in future.
For more education research and insights, including on pupil projections, visit nfer.ac.uk/blogs.
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