ANALYSIS: 20 years after the Good Friday Agreement, is another leap forward possible in Ireland?
5 min read
The biblical portents which greeted the Good Friday Agreement 20 years ago today – even in Northern Ireland snow in April is considered unusual – were an indication of its magnitude.
After decades of hellish violence and political polarisation, it can rightly be argued that such an agreement was long overdue, that lives could have been saved had previous initiatives like the Sunningdale Agreement been given a proper chance by the ultras on either side or if the men of violence had chosen the constitutional path. However, to see those divergent paths of unionism and nationalism at last come together was equally momentous and moving.
An inherently ambiguous agreement, it has evidently failed some of its key tests. The devolved institutions – dormant since last year – have proven brittle in the face of even the slightest strain.
The successor St Andrews Agreement struck by the DUP and Sinn Fein led to technical changes which have made Stormont elections yet another ethnic tribune. Some, however, would argue the ambiguity at its core is its genius; by meaning different things to the aspirations of each community, it achieved buy-in which removed bloodshed and misery from the streets of Northern Ireland.
The failure of power-sharing, which given the dichotomised nature of the Northern Ireland Executive placed extreme structural constraints on any semblance of cohesive policy being offered by the governing parties, was however not in the script in 1998. Much of it, seemingly, boils down to a question of enthusiasm on the part of the two parties who have assumed dominance in Northern Irish politics.
The DUP campaigned against the Good Friday Agreement with all the accustomed vim, vigour and demagoguery that their late leader Ian Paisley could muster. Arlene Foster left the Ulster Unionists over the Agreement and David Trimble’s subsequent handling of its implementation and crossed the floor to the DUP. To expect the vanguard of opposition to be faithful custodians of an accord they did not sign up to was perhaps wishful thinking.
For their part, Sinn Fein, ever aware to potential opportunities to make Ireland “a nation once again”, alighted on support for the Agreement and attempting to govern both north and south as
the best strategy. Given, in their view, that Brexit could accelerate the process exponentially they have abandoned that incremental approach.
Compared with 20 years ago, the calibre of politician across the board seems to have diminished. For all his many foibles and difficulty in selling the Agreement, David Trimble negotiated something which still placed an emphasis on Northern Ireland being an essential part of the UK and could potentially allow future, cerebral unionists to pitch to swithering nationalists about the merits of the UK.
The DUP’s cack-handed approach – whether towards Brexit or the nationalist population – has shown that for all their love of tactics they are terrible strategists. Conversely, nationalism is suffering from not having a figurehead like Trimble’s fellow Nobel Prize-winner John Hume, a man of profound humanity and clarity of thought. Hume’s sense contrasts starkly with that of Gerry Adams who marked the anniversary by saying armed actions were still "valid in certain circumstances". When compared with the late Martin McGuinness, who denounced republican dissidents as traitors to Ireland, its understandable why Adams remains to many a reminder of the malevolence of armed republicanism.
The Government, hamstrung by Brexit and beholden to the DUP, has proven a model of inaction. Though eminently well-meaning, it is difficult to imagine Karen Bradley administering the sort of
rocket to local politicians that Mo Mowlam would never shy away from. On Theresa May’s part, it says much for her lack of Prime Ministerial chutzpah that a recent visit during the talks process was described as an unhelpful distraction by her "friends" in the DUP.
It is easy to blame politicians; indeed, it seems to be the closest thing to a national hobby in Northern Ireland. The universally accepted truth is that everything would be much better if its
politicians were exiled to somewhere like Rathlin Island and Stormont were run by the people. The recent BBC documentary marking the 20th anniversary by Patrick Kielty – the comedian whose father was killed by the UVF – echoed this popular standpoint.
However, if this gap is so great, why then have at recent elections Sinn Fein and the DUP achieved record results when standing on equally partisan platforms, polling far more than the moderate
alternatives who would seem more in tune with this supposed view of contemporary Northern Ireland? An equally telling insight was a recent Sky poll which found that 58% of the 18-34- year olds
it surveyed have few or no friends of a different religion, showing that the legacy of the past still hangs like a dead weight on Northern Irish society, let alone politics.
If the Good Friday Agreement’s achievement was to be the means by which some form of peace was achieved, 20 years on it should be marked by new attempts to really forge ahead for a Northern Ireland completely at peace and ease with itself. Yet, in the divisive context of Brexit, whether Northern Ireland politicians, people and civil society can take another leap forward away from the tyranny of the past remains to be seen.
* Andrew McQuillan works in public affairs and writes extensively on Northern Ireland
