ANALYSIS: As the ERG wobble, the DUP continue to hold firm on Meaningful Vote 3
2 min read
As Westminster gears up for the constitutional novelty of indicative votes, it's important to remember that Theresa May's Brexit deal is not dead. Not yet anyway.
It may be looking a bit green around the gills, but it is still alive. In fact, if Theresa May has her way, it could be restored to full health by the weekend.
Under the agreement reached at last week's EU Council in Brussels, the Government has until Friday - the symbolically important date of 29 March - to finally get it through Parliament. If that happens, the UK will finally leave the bloc on 22 May and things just might start getting back to something approaching normality in SW1.
This is why recent comments by the likes Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson are so significant. Until now implacably opposed to the Withdrawal Agreement, the reality that they could end up killing the very thing they desire seems to finally be dawning on them. To howls of anger from their even more hardline brethren, both have said they could vote for it after all.
Rees-Mogg has insisted that he will only do so if the DUP are on board, describing them as the "defenders of the union" between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Well, from conversations I've had this morning, it does not appear as though Arlene Foster's party are in any mood to bail the Tory Brexiteers, or the Prime Minister, out.
One senior DUP source said: "We are focused on getting an outcome which respects the referendum result and protects the union. The Withdrawal Agreement problems are difficult to square."
I also understand that far from softening their attitude, the party could be preparing to actually harden their approach to May's deal, dramatically reducing the chances of the PM bringing 'Meaningful Vote 3' before the Commons later this week.
Make no mistake, the DUP are angry with Downing Street and they do not trust Rees-Mogg and the rest of the European Research Group.
But they realise that they are unlikely to ever wield as much power over Theresa May as they do now. What the Prime Minister can offer in return for their backing will determine whether her Brexit strategy - such as it is - will succeed or fail.
