By-election Breakdown - Return of the big Broon
John Johnston & Sam Webber
5 min read
PoliticsHome's by-election breakdown is back in business. Join us every week for our light-hearted look at who's in, who's out, who's lost the plot.
Clackmannanshire UA, Clackmannan Central
(SNP resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green, UKIP)
2017: Lab 846, 183; SNP 714, 273; Con 428; Grn 133
2012: Lab 916, 288; SNP 661, 421; Ind 88; Con 77
Our first contest this evening takes us north of the border, where a seat has come loose from the back of the scrum after the resignation of SNP councillor Phil Fairlie, who steps down after three years in the post.
Mr Fairlie, whose day job is with a prison officer’s trade union, will be hoping his party can keep the Clacks Central seat in lockdown. But with Scotland’s complicated vote transferring system and a fairly committed unionist bloc vote, could one of the other parties be set to stage a jailbreak?
Digging the tunnel for Labour is Margaret Brookes, who has been given some fairly hefty support from the central party with both Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard, and MSP Anas Sarwar out on the doorstep.
Also making a rare public appearance to help boost Ms Brookes chances was former Prime Minister Gordon Brown. That sound you hear? The kitchen sink being thrown at this contest.
But the SNP aren’t going to let go of this seat without a fight, and have fielded an impressive army of activists, including former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier who travels to every by-election in Scotland to battle for SNP candidates. She’s going to have more than a few favours to call in if she is selected to stand for another Westminster seat...
Luckily, they’ve selected a candidate who ticks all the right boxes. Those boxes being:
Fully clad in Tartan. Check.
Dig at Labour’s handling of the economy. Check.
Blast at the Toaries over austerity. Check.
Meanwhile, Scottish Conservative candidate William Marlin has learnt some best practice from the Liberal Democrats, proudly headlining his leaflets with the statement: “Only Ruth Davidson’s candidate William Marlin Conservatives can beat the SNP here.”
It’s a strong message, let down only by the fact that it is entirely untrue...
Prediction: Labour gain
Sutton LB, Wallington North
(Liberal Democrat resigned - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP, Christian People, Ind)
2018: LD 1637, 1587, 1505; Con 912, 888, 827; Lab 594, 526, 516; Grn 300, 222; UKIP 118, 104, 72
2014: LD 1363, 1317, 1247; Con 1033, 865, 737; UKIP 823; Lab 470, 447, 415; Grn 341, 280, 205
The London Borough of Sutton Council is a very rare beast. It has been controlled by the Liberal Democrats for longer than the party has itself been in existence, in that the party’s predecessor became the largest party here way back in 1986 and has run the authority ever since. Between 2014 and 2018 this was the sole Lib Dem controlled council in London, and was last year joined by Kingston and Richmond which the party regained control of from the Conservatives.
Wallington North has seen the resignation of a long serving councillor due to ill health and a Liberal Democrat is likely to win here again tonight. The ward is within Tom Brake’s constituency of Carshalton and Wallington which has now elected him at every election from 1997 to 2017.
Labour and the Conservatives have campaigned here and have tweeted to get their respective vote out today; but we understand canvassing has been largely confined to the incumbent party. Whilst they might see a modest swing against them and a low turnout; the local Lib Dems are quietly confident of a comfortable hold.
Perhaps we ought to spare a thought for the Sutton Green party which is crowd-funding £151 to cover the cost of their leaflet. They have managed £130 so far so not to be sniffed at. Unfortunately £40 of that has come from the candidate herself, and as we suspect they might struggle to get to 130 votes, hopefully the cost of printing the leaflets will be carbon off-set?
Prediction: Lib Dem hold
A massive credit goes to our fellow council by-election fanatics on the Vote UK Forum where we got our previous vote totals from.
