Chances of Labour majority almost zero, claims polling expert John Curtice
3 min read
Labour’s chances of winning a majority in the general election are virtually zero, according to the UK’s top polling guru.
Professor Sir John Curtice said the party’s ongoing slump in Scotland meant the best Jeremy Corbyn could hope for is to lead a minority government.
He also claimed that the election was now a “binary contest” between a majority Tory government delivering Brexit and a Labour-led coalition calling a second EU referendum.
Sir John said that up until 2010, Labour was guaranteed to send at least 40 Scottish MPs to Westminster.
But now, with Labour defending just seven seats north of the Border, he said that results there are “potentially fundamental” to Boris Johnson’s chances of winning on 12 December.
He said: “The chances of the Labour Party winning a majority are frankly as close to zero as one can safely say it to be given they look utterly incapable of regaining anything in Scotland.”
Sir John’s comments are at odds with John McDonnell’s claim at the start of the election campaign that Labour is aiming to win an overall Commons majority.
Elsewhere, the Strathclyde University academic said that the most likely outcome to the election, based on current opinion polls, was a majority Conservative government.
But he added: “This is a pretty binary contest. Either Boris gets a majority and we’re leaving the EU on the terms he’s negotiating, or we get a hung Parliament in which case we have to anticipate that a minority Labour administration which will apply for an extension and there will be a referendum, the result of which we do not know.”
However, he said that Labour’s policy on Brexit - which is to renegotiate a new deal with Brussels and hold another referendum next summer - could end up being a drag on their support at the election.
“The problem the Labour Party has is they’ve tried to satisfy everybody and have ended up satisfying nobody,” he said.
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SPONSORED CONTENT - A message from William Kedjanyi at Star Sports
"Few would challenge the workings of election expert Sir John Curtice, and the markets at Star agree that the chances of a Labour majority are very small – we go 25/1 (3.85%) on a Labour Majority.
"If there is to be a route to Downing Street for Jeremy Corbyn, it likely comes through Labour winning the most seats, a 10/1 shot (9.85%) and then being the largest party in a minority Government (a 9/2 shot with Star, or 18.18%) that holds a Second EU Referendum in due course.”
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