Do Labour's U-Turns Really Matter?
Labour leader Keir Starmer campaigning in Mid-Bedfordshire (Alamy)
9 min read
A number of high-profile pledges made by Keir Starmer when he ran to become Labour’s leader in 2020 have been retracted by the party since he won the top job.
For Conservatives – and even some of Starmer’s own backbench MPs – these ‘u-turns’ are proof that this Labour operation is unfit for government. Party leadership and Starmer's allies maintain that amending policies in reaction to a volatile economic landscape is necessary to convince voters they are credible and fiscally responsible.
But if the opposition party continues to lead in the polls regardless, how much do u-turns really matter?
After months of political turmoil, economic uncertainty, and soaring living costs and mortgage rates, Labour MPs and activists have identified a widespread sense of apathy among voters on doorsteps. Although a policy dropped here or there is unlikely to make a significant dent in over support for a party, there is a sense of malaise among many Labour MPs who believe the damp reception voters are currently giving them is indicative of a vacuum of vision from the leadership.
“People are crying out for inspiration and hope and something to believe in again, and we haven't given anybody a reason to vote Labour yet,” a shadow minister who spent the first Monday of recess speaking to constituents told PoliticsHome.
All parties are frantically refining their policy agendas to best appeal to voters ahead of the next general election, expected to take place before the end of 2024. Having made big promises to the Labour membership when running for leader, Starmer now faces a balancing act between retaining the support of the broader party – in particular the left wing who see backtracking on leadership pledges as an ideological betrayal – and more malleable MPs who are willing to make compromises to win voters.
What both sides agree on is that while individual policies can resonate with voters when they affect them directly, overall it’s a party’s vision for the future that grabs people overall, and they worry that Labour does not yet have one.
"We haven't given anybody a reason to vote Labour yet.”
Three years into his leadership, a number of Starmer’s original pledges are piling up on the scrapheap. He has u-turned on Labour’s long-held commitment to ditch the Conservatives’ two-child benefit cap, to much anger across the party, and has rowed back on bringing public services into “common ownership”, banning private outsourcing in the NHS, abolishing universal credit, and ending university tuition fees.
Labour’s net zero commitments also seem up for negotiation. In June Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves admitted that the Green Prosperity Plan would face delays in government. A narrow loss of the Uxbridge and Ruislip by-election following local opposition to Sadiq Khan’s proposed Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) expansion has sparked a row between Starmer and the London Mayor, who is now understood to be considering how the policy could be revised.
The shadow minister who faced questions from constituents about Labour’s vision this week found that the vacuum had been filled with plenty of opinions on Starmer’s perceived u-turns. They said one person compared him to former Liberal Democrat leader and coalition deputy prime minister Nick Clegg, who was scarred by his party’s capitulation on tuition fees following the 2010 election. “[Starmer] keeps changing his mind and you can’t trust him,” was the main message they heard from voters.
“What they were saying is that there is no vision, and the fact that [Starmer] is rolling back on things just reinforces their position,” they added.
"You have to be as cunning as a fox."
Another shadow minister said they recognised there is a balance to strike between offering credibility and “actually offering people positive reasons to vote Labour”.
“There's a bit of work to be done on that,” they sighed. “The polls are very healthy for us, but you can't take anything for granted and we've been here before many times, where we have had very healthy leads mid-term and it’s all evaporated on the final reckoning.”
A strong policy offering has not always been enough to get Labour into government. In 2019, then-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s manifesto included policies that were initially appealing to the electorate, but fell apart under criticism that they were “extreme and unrealistic”. Labour went on to suffer its worst electoral defeat in 84 years, resulting in a Tory landslide.
“That's possibly one of the lessons that Starmer has learned,” said Professor Will Jennings, Associate Dean Research & Enterprise at the University of Southampton.
“They are trying to do something different and not have such an expensive ‘potpourri’ of policy promises.
“Research we saw from the polling in the last election is that just having a big set of popular policies isn't what necessarily delivers victory. It’s about being seen as competent and what Labour is looking for is to develop that credibility to show it is serious, ready for government, and realistic.”
Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at polling company Savanta UK told PoliticsHome that u-turns can actually be viewed by voters as a sign of competence.
“Broadly, the public tends to believe that u-turns are kind of good,” he argued.
“They show political parties identifying problems and fixing them before it's too late, rather than just proceeding headlong in something that is unpopular.”
But criticism among Labour figures that abandoned policy positions needed to be replaced with vision rang true with the pollster. “They're going to have to start laying out some policy more than just the missions they have laid out so far,” he added. “I think they have to start being a little bolder.”
Labour backbenchers say they’re crying out for bold thinking. An MP on the left of the party, which is generally critical of Starmer, insisted that even if individual u-turns do not turn off voters, a confusing policy message will. While they felt the two-child benefit cap u-turn alone may not cost voters, if it sows doubt over Labour’s support for struggling families, "that's the bit that cuts through".
A Labour Party spokesperson told PoliticsHome the party “absolutely” wants to deliver many of its most ambitious policy pledges, but stressed that voters know this can only be done when it is clear how they will be paid for.
“The Conservative Party's reckless, unfunded giveaways crashed the economy and that has made the task of an incoming Labour government even more urgent and difficult,” they said.
“Keir has been clear that our priority will be to rebuild the public finances as a solid foundation that underpins everything we do. That has required honesty about what we can afford to do and when, and unlike the Tories, every promise we make is fully costed and fully funded.”
Labour has historically struggled to win public trust on its handling of public finances, a frequent line of attack by the Conservatives. But the current backdrop of economic instability, exacerbated by short-lived prime minister Liz Truss’s chaotic attempt at fiscal reform has offered them a window of opportunity. In 2023, the economy is ranked number one in public concerns according to YouGov, making it essential for Labour to place fiscal responsibility at the centre of its pitch for government. But in opposition and unable to deliver evidence policy has improved people’s lives, Labour’s challenge is communicating plans in a compelling way.
Multiple Labour MPs told PoliticsHome that while they supported the party’s promise of disciplined spending, they must be more dynamic in how they communicate the benefits of policies they choose to keep and soften the messaging around u-turns.
“I don't think we should be watering down our commitment to net zero,” a Labour MP at the centre of the party said.
“I would slightly be recalibrating our messaging around the importance of the issue but also how it could open up potential economic areas for more deprived parts of the country. There are lots of opportunities for Labour there.”
Although they agreed there was “more work to do” on setting out how Labour would make a real difference to people’s lives, the MP said that not being trusted with the public finances was a “real point of vulnerability” for Labour and that fixing this image would have to be an “essential” part of the general election campaign, making u-turns a necessary evil.
“What I think it shows is a ruthless dynamism from a leader and team who don’t want to lose, they want to win,” they insisted.
“We’ve got to kick on and be pretty dynamic and ruthless about these kinds of things. You can’t be endlessly consulting with backbench Labour MPs, you’ve got to get a move on and start making some decisions.
“I’ve been entirely supportive of the difficult decisions that they’ve taken and I think it demonstrates a decisiveness that frankly we have not seen for too long in the highest levels of the Labour Party.”
Another Labour MP and former government minister told PoliticsHome that being in opposition requires being “as cunning as a fox” and getting the timing right on when to push or scrap policies.
“Sometimes you have to dance the Cha Cha Cha, sometimes it's the Argentine Tango, and sometimes you just have to stand stockstill while everybody else messes up,” they said.
"I think they have to start being a little bolder".
Describing voters as “pretty fed up” with politicians making “bold promises that don’t add up”, they said it was important for Labour to avoid hypocrisy after criticising Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng for making uncosted tax cuts last year.
“We've got to offer nuggets of hope that we’re going to be better than this lot, and I think at this stage, when we're 18 months away from a general election, it's important to try and have as much of a clean slate as possible,” they added.
How many more of Labour’s current policies survive until its party Conference in Liverpool in October remains to be seen. Whether Starmer can use his headline speech to tell the public what his and Labour’s vision for government is as the party enters the final campaigning push campaigning before the general election, will be a matter of survival.
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