Stormont Returning Before Christmas Is Unlikely, But A DUP Deal Is Close
DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson outside Hillsborough Castle, Belfast (Alamy)
4 min read
The Democratic Unionist Party is playing down the chances of a deal with the UK government to restore power-sharing in Northern Ireland being agreed before Christmas, with early January currently seen as the most likely moment for the two sides to reach an agreement.
Rishi Sunak's government has spent many months in negotiations with the DUP, led by MP Sir Jeffrey Doanaldson, in a bid to persuade it to return to the government in Belfast.
The DUP collapsed power sharing early last year out of protest against post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland's relationship with Great Britain, which the unionist party said had fundamentally undermined the region's place in the UK.
In February, Sunak and the European Union agreed a new deal for the region called the Windsor framework, replacing a treaty negotiated by former prime minister Boris Johnson called the Northern Ireland Protocol. The DUP said the Windsor Framework was an improvement but did not go far enough to address its concerns, and since then Donaldson has been in talks with the government about addressing his party's remaining concerns.
What is the state of play?
On Monday afternoon in Belfast, UK officials will hold talks with leaders of the DUP, Sinn Fein, Alliance and Ulster Unionist Party as part of ongoing efforts to get the region's political institutions back up-and-running. Chris Heaton Harris, the secretary of state for Northern Ireland, will join the discussions on Tuesday.
After nearly a year of negotiations and false dawns, the DUP and Sunak's UK government are close to reaching an agreement, PoliticsHome understands, and there had been suggestions last week that the political institutions in Belfast could be restored as soon as this week.
Under this timeline, the DUP would reach an agreement with the government on Monday, paving the way for the UK ministers to bring forward measures facilitating the return of Stormont before Parliament breaks up for Christmas recess on Tuesday.
Hopes of a Christmas deal fade
However, talks are expected to continue into January, sources have told PoliticsHome.
Why is that?
The DUP, as well as the other political parties in Northern Ireland, have asked the Westminster government to increase its proposed financial package for Stormont.
Ministers have put forward a package worth £2.5bn, contingent on the institutions returning to action, covering funding for public services and cash to help settle public sector pay disputes in the region. But all of the parties have asked the government to increase the amount and backdate funding by at least a year, arguing that the current pot is not sufficient.
The Treasury, worried about hindering the government's economic objectives like reducing inflation, is wary about putting too much money into a Stormont restoration package.
Besides, even if the Sunak government and the DUP reached an agreement in this week's meetings, any deal would need sign off at several levels of the DUP ahead of Parliament breaking up for Christmas recess on Tuesday in order for Stormont to be restored in 2023, which party sources regard as unrealistic given the little time they would have.
The Prime Minister's spokesperson on Monday refused to get into the specifics of the talks.
"There are talks taking place this week on restoring power sharing. It's right that the details of those talks are kept private. That is how we have made progress so far," they told reporters.
"It is in the interests of the people of Northern Ireland, and indeed the UK, for power sharing to be restored urgently and it is right that we all work as hard as possible, and for as long as possible, to achieve that aim."
Away from money, PoliticsHome has previously reported that the government was looking at ways to further reduce checks on goods heading from Great Britain to Northern Ireland as part of a restoration deal.
If not now, when?
18 January is seen as an important date in the coming weeks. Heaton Harris is obliged to call assembly elections in Northern Ireland on that day, and the government and DUP will be under great pressure to reach an agreement before that point.
Many people who are pushing for Stormont's return are understandably reluctant to get their hopes up given the length of the talks, as well as the pressure Donaldson faces from more right-wing unionist parties like Traditional Unionist Voice to not compromise his position.
Donaldson on Sunday said CCTV had captured TUV members sticking a poster which reads "stop the DUP sell out" outside his constituency office, and described them as "cowards".
The DUP's Sammy Wilson, who is seen as being on the party's more hardline wing when it comes to talks with the government, accused the TUV of spreading "poisonous lies" about the DUP.
But sources familiar with the DUP thinking have told PoliticsHome it is now a matter of when, not if, Donaldson will take his party back into power-sharing.
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