We focus on technology but the real barrier to decarbonisation is the skills shortage
Decarbonising the way we heat buildings is a significant challenge, and an enormous technology transformation will be required to achieve the 2050 net-zero targets. Arguments continue to rage how the necessary changes should be implemented, but there is also growing concern over whether the workforce is available with the necessary skills to deliver the 2050 goals.
This might seem surprising. After all, the UK’s homes and businesses are already served by a mature and well-regulated industry of heating professionals, so what’s the problem?
The skills shortage continues to be overlooked
Unfortunately, government may have significantly underestimated both the scale of the skills challenge, and the policy interventions needed to achieve it. The existence of a mature current workforce may be part of the reason for this apparent complacency. There seems to have been an assumption that many heating installers would simply switch from fitting oil and gas boilers to installing heat pumps instead.
However, the new technology has proved a hard sell, and there are increasing signs that the growth of the heat pump market may not happen at anything like the pace and scale required. So, why is the skills challenge such a problem?
Let’s start with the workforce itself. The average age of oil and gas heating installers is around 50 and many will be able to see out their working careers without ever needing to touch a heat pump – there will be more than enough demand for installing or servicing boilers to see them through to retirement.
Market uncertainty holds back installers diversifying
A second problem is that the business driver doesn’t yet exist. For most existing installers there still isn’t enough customer demand for heat pumps to justify the time ‘off the tools’ to undertake the necessary retraining. They also balk at the cost and bureaucracy involved in obtaining the accreditations required to install them under the government funded Boiler Upgrade Scheme – a significant hurdle if you only expect to install a handful each year.
For the small businesses and sole traders that make up the overwhelming majority of the industry, these concerns are significant. Government schemes to encourage the growth of the renewable sector have come and gone, but none have yet stimulated consumer demand to a point where most heating businesses are convinced of the need to diversify.
That’s not to say that the government hasn’t tried. The current Boiler Upgrade Scheme grants are extremely generous, rules around building eligibility have been relaxed, and funding has also been made available for installer training. However, despite the grants, the cost of heat pumps systems is still higher than competing alternatives, and boiler replacements are often a result of a breakdown, which greatly limits the opportunity to consider what is often a disruptive and time-consuming alternative.
If the existing workforce alone can’t deliver the kind of growth needed in the heat pump market, a new workforce needs to be recruited. But there’s a huge problem; the provisions needed to attract new entrants, train them appropriately, provide a clear and accessible career pathway for them, and engage with existing businesses to support this, is seriously underdeveloped.
Making apprenticeships more accessible to learners and employers
This is particularly true where apprenticeships are concerned. The Low-Carbon Heating apprenticeship was only allocated funding in September 2023, and many Further Education colleges are not yet set up to deliver this.
At present, according to the gov.uk website, there are only 24 FE colleges delivering this apprenticeship, compared with 66 offering Gas Engineering apprenticeships, and 125 offering Domestic Plumbing and Heating. Generally, (although not always), the intake for apprentices is in September each year, and with the apprenticeship taking three years to complete, this will leave a shortfall until more FE colleges are able to deliver the programme.
Organisations, including OFTEC, have developed industry recognised short-course training and assessment programmes for heat pumps, but these are aimed at existing heating technicians (gas, liquid fuel) who already have the necessary plumbing and heating experience to enable them to transfer their skills to heat pumps. Although readily available across the country, these courses are not suitable for school leavers with no prior experience.
Existing heating businesses are also sometimes reluctant to employ apprentices. A key barrier is often the financial burden that bringing an apprentice into a business attracts. Not only in terms of renumeration, but also the cost of formal training, insurance liability and the loss of existing efficiency and productivity while mentoring an apprentice.
However, these host businesses can play a critically important role by passing on valuable real-world skills and experience. With a suitable framework in place, they can provide a crucial stepping stone to a career in the renewable heating industry. The use of apprentices may also give small businesses the workforce boost they need to make the diversification into heat pump installations a practical proposition. But to make this a reality, urgent action is needed to make apprenticeships attractive and rewarding, both to entrants and the host business.
It should also be noted that the heating skills gap is not evenly distributed across the country. For example, while cities may be relatively well-served, some rural areas may have few, if any, installers specialising in low carbon appliances such as heat pumps – a situation that is far from ideal for consumers.
Renewable liquid fuels offer an alternative pathway
However, for some homes and businesses that use oil heating, the potential to switch to a low carbon fuel, rather than replace the existing heating system, provides an attractive alternative, and one that utilises the existing workforce and supply chain. An industry-led demonstration project has shown that existing oil heating systems can be converted quickly and cheaply to run on fuels such as HVO – a low carbon replacement made from waste feedstocks.
This solution could offer an attractive alternative decarbonisation pathway that avoids both high capital cost and the skills challenges that are currently stalling progress in the heating sector.
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