Where Could Smaller Parties Win In The Local And Mayoral Elections?
Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage are hopeful their parties can make big gains at the local elections (Alamy)
5 min read
Smaller parties will hope to capitalise on Labour and Tory struggles when dozens of councils and mayoralties hold elections in May.
The first major electoral test for Keir Starmer's Labour government and Kemi Badenoch's leadership of the Conservative Party will come on Thursday 1 May, when elections will be held for 23 county councils, unitary authorities, and metropolitan boroughs, as well as six mayors.
All the upcoming council elections are currently under Conservative control or no overall control, apart from one – Doncaster – which Labour currently leads.
Badenoch's first 100 days as Tory leader have proved challenging, with one Tory backbencher telling PoliticsHome, "She hasn’t got a narrative working yet.”
Unhelpfully for Badenoch, her party is going into the May local elections defending a large number of council seats, meaning it could suffer yet more losses after last year's devastating general election result.
Labour figures won't be feeling much more positive, however. Governing parties often perform poorly at local elections, and that is before you factor in the fact that Labour and Starmer's ratings have fallen particularly sharply since their general election win.
The 2025 mayoral elections are all taking place in areas which either have Labour mayors, or are being contested for the first time.
By mapping where the smaller parties – Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and independent candidates – came first or second in parliamentary constituencies in last year's general election, PoliticsHome has illustrated the key areas to watch out for in this year's local and mayoral elections.
While general election results cannot directly predict results in local elections, they can provide a sense of where in the country parties are experiencing momentum. With smaller parties on the rise, these elections could spell trouble for both the mainstream parties.
Reform
Reform outperformed many of the polls leading up to last year's general election, winning a total of five seats. With the party's rise in popularity showing no signs of slowing down, different groups are emerging among the Labour backbenches to offer ideas on how best to deal with the threat of Nigel Farage's party.
PoliticsHome analysis of where Reform came first or second in parliamentary constituencies shows some of these fears among Labour backbenchers might be valid. Research for PoliticsHome has also shown that the biggest single group of switchers from one party to another since the July election was those who voted Tory last year and would now support Reform.
Reform's greatest opportunities lie in the east and northeast of England, particularly in Durham and Northumberland, where the party came second in a total of seven constituencies last year.
In the East Midlands, Reform has a huge chance of getting many councillors elected, particularly in Lincolnshire, where the party says it is fielding candidates in every single seat.
Reform also has high hopes for the mayoral elections taking place in Greater Lincolnshire, Hull and East Yorkshire, and North Tyneside. However, while former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns is the Reform candidate for Lincolnshire, the party have yet to select candidates for the contests in Hull and East Yorkshire or North Tyneside.
Liberal Democrats
Despite the Liberal Democrats winning a record 72 seats in last year's general election, the major parties appear to view Reform as the more existential threat going forward, as Reform is matching Labour in the polls at around 25 per cent of the popular vote – compared to 13 per cent for the Lib Dems.
However, with nearly all of this year's local elections taking place in Conservative-held areas, there are plenty more seats for the Lib Dems to win. Lib Dem party figures view these elections as a final chance to complete their 'Blue Wall' sweep in the south and south-west of England, as this round of local elections is replacing councillors elected in 2021 – the last contest where the Conservatives enjoyed a strong performance.
"Why change a winning formula?" one senior Lib Dem MP told PoliticsHome, explaining why their strategy is to continue presenting themselves to voters as a sensible alternative to the Tories.
While all the smaller parties potentially missed out on gaining seats in areas where local elections have been postponed to 2026, the Lib Dems arguably lost the most opportunities. Elections were postponed in the Lib Dem-targetted areas of West Sussex, East Sussex, Hampshire and Surrey.
Greens
The Green Party has more limited opportunities to increase its number of councillors at these local elections, particularly since multiple local elections have been postponed to 2026, as many of these councils are set to be merged or form new devolved structures.
However, the Greens might be eyeing up the election for the Mayor of West of England. In this region, multiple Bristol constituencies saw Green candidates come either come first or second in the general election. In the 2021 West of England mayor election, Green candidate Jerome Thomas came third with 21.7 per cent of the vote in the first round, compared to 28.6 per cent for the Tory candidate and 33.4 per cent for the Labour candidate Dan Norris, who won the contest.
Independents
It appears unlikely that independent candidates will perform well in the areas where local elections are taking place this year. There might, however, be some support for independent candidates in Lancashire, where an independent candidate placed second in Preston in the general election last year.
In the 2024 general election, the rise of the smaller parties had a significant role to play in Labour's historic victory and the Conservative's shattering defeat. The local elections in May are set to reveal just how much of a threat they might continue to pose in the coming years.
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