Men with few qualifications most at risk of losing their jobs under no-deal Brexit, warns thinktank
3 min read
Men with few formal qualifications are the most likely group to lose their jobs under a no-deal Brexit and then struggle to find suitable work, according to a major thinktank.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) found those with GCSE qualifications or below and working in certain manual jobs are at “particular risk” from new trade barriers should Britain crash out of the European Union.
The demographic have also traditionally struggled to find equally well-paid work elsewhere when job losses have occurred, the group claims.
Researchers found that 14% - or 3.7 million – of British workers are employed in “very highly exposed” industries – that is, those that face losing more than 5% of their value added if trade with the EU was on WTO terms.
The report found that 20% of men with low levels of formal qualifications fall into the category, compared with 15% of highly educated men and less than 10% of highly educated women.
Overall, men in all categories are more at risk than women.
They found that the highest paid jobs in manufacturing and finance are “most exposed”, while those in lower earning service industry roles such as in the care sector, hospitality and retail are less so given they export less.
The report found manufacturers of clothing, transport equipment and the chemicals and pharmaceuticals sector will be majorly affected by higher trade barriers given their high number of exports to the European Union.
The findings come just a day after Nissan warned ministers that leaving the EU without a future trading arrangement would have “serious implications” for its major Sunderland plant.
Similarly finance, which exports 12% of its output to the EU, could be held back if a deal is not reached on non-tariff barriers such as passporting rights.
The body warns that 29% of workers in the in the process, plant and machine operative sector - around 500,000 people - should be of particular concern to policymakers given they are often older and have specific skills which may be of limited value to other lines of work should they lose their job.
The report also found that agriculture could benefit in trade barriers as consumers turn to home-grown products – however the sectors that would gain make up only a small proportion of employment and the economy.
MANUFACTURING 'HARDEST HIT'
IFS Research Economist, Agnes Norris Keiller, said of the findings: “If barriers to trade with the EU increase, particularly the sort of ‘non-tariff’ barriers created by customs checks and regulatory divergence, then some sectors of the economy will be affected more than others.
"Parts of the manufacturing sector are likely to be hardest hit.
“As a result, the jobs or wages of men with low formal qualifications working in certain manual occupations may be under particular threat.
“These are the sorts of workers who are most likely to find it hard to adapt and to find new roles that are equally well paid elsewhere.
“Conversely, the UK agriculture industry could gain from trade barriers as households switch from demanding EU food products to ones made in the UK.
“But these gains would be at the expense of UK consumers, and these industries are a small proportion of overall employment.”
Liberal Democrat MP Tom Brake said the report was "damning" of the Government's approach to Brexit.
“From their financially secure ivory towers, Theresa May and Dominic Raab are ignorant of the impact of their mess, while Jeremy Corbyn just simply doesn’t seem to care," he said.
“Yet the evidence is that they are all putting people’s livelihoods at risk.”
Labour MP and campaigner for pro-EU group Best for Britain, David Lammy, said: “Many explained Brexit as the gut reaction of workers to the loss of traditional working class jobs following technological advances and globalisation.
“The sad irony is that Brexit will make the situation worse for British manufacturing industry and the hardworking families who depend on it.”
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