Party Activists Sceptical Of Polls Predicting Tory Wipeout As July 4 Approaches
A poster on a bus stop in Camden displays information about the UK election on July 4 (Credit: Vuk Valcic/Alamy Live News)
4 min read
In the final stretch of the campaign before the big day on July 4, there is huge scepticism among both Labour and Tory activists about the polls that show Rishi Sunak’s party being almost completely wiped out.
It is not just expectation management. Those on the doorstep report genuinely that there are too many undecided voters, “hard don’t knows” – even at this late stage – for the more dramatic MRPs to be trusted.
On the Labour side, people are naturally worried that the foregone conclusion could affect voter motivation to go to the polls. “It’s a conspiracy to lower turnout,” one Labour candidate seeking re-election said, only half joking.
There is concern, too, that the recent focus on stories revealing how candidates have placed bets on political events will only encourage cynicism. Have the Gambling Commission and police investigations effectively given already apathetic voters permission to switch off entirely?
The quiet place
“Tories are slightly worried about causing more issues so they’re going to be quiet going into the final week,” a Conservative insider said. “It will be very hyper-localised. Let what local candidates do best and knock on as many doors as possible.”
Conservatives are now talking about securing over 100 MPs as “we’ll take that” territory – apparently it is under 100 that is unacceptable, and third place behind the Lib Dems in seats where they will “hit every emergency button you can possibly find”. Current expectations are that they will return 100 to 150 MPs.
In the run-up to polling day, most are planning to keep their heads down and work their own seats hard. “Everyone’s going to be quite selfish with the time they have,” the same Tory source noted. It is only some Cabinet members with large majorities of their own who are expected to support colleagues.
Kemi Badenoch has been one of those offering help. As well as visits to constituencies of friends such as Sarah Dines, she has produced endorsement videos this week for fellow candidates including neighbours Nikki da Costa and Julie Marson, plus “one of the bravest women I’ve ever met” Miriam Cates, and her 2022 leadership bid backers Tom Hunt, Andrew Lewer and Rachel Maclean. Getting the band back together?
The Business Secretary is, of course, the current favourite to win the anticipated Tory leadership contest. Trans ally David Tennant telling her to “shut up” this week only appears to have given her a boost. Supporters insist she would be capable of uniting the party in opposition, despite her hostility towards journalists.
Target practice
PoliticsHome reported last week on unease in Labour over a campaign strategy some criticised for lacking agility, with activists still being directed to seats now predicted to be very safe in this election.
The party has since changed tack somewhat for the last push in the campaign. Many of the twinned seats have been swapped out to direct people towards more ambitious targets; Vauxhall had been paired with Crawley, for example, but those activists are now being encouraged to visit Northampton. Meanwhile, Labour staff in the South are being sent away from seats now considered safe enough to be posted in the Midlands and Scotland instead.
Despite the awareness that Labour cannot appear complacent, conversation within the party has shifted towards post-election chat.
If Starmer becomes PM, one of his first tasks will be to appoint his cabinet. No significant reshuffle is predicted, but Thangam Debbonaire is widely expected to lose her Bristol seat to the Greens (there are long faces about how much publicity co-leader Carla Denyer is getting), which would mean filling the culture post. Will current shadow minister Chris Bryant, who apparently covets the role, get the call for that promotion?
There are also rumours that Steve Reed is eyeing DLUHC – which would entail nabbing it off Angela Rayner, a very brave move – but a source close to him dismisses that as “absolute rubbish”, saying “he is very excited about Defra”.
For months there has been talk of Rayner’s power possibly being diluted, leaving her only with the DPM title. Although this chatter has died down in recent weeks, some still warn she needs to take responsibility over the labour market from Jonathan Reynolds, otherwise weekly meetings with him will be needed to properly fulfil her role leading on Labour’s new deal for workers.
Finally, with Starmer's team in place, Parliament is thought likely to return on 9 July, followed by the King’s speech on 17 July according to the Institute for Government’s Alex Thomas (as discussed on the latest PoliticsHome podcast), and a slightly delayed recess probably starting 1 August.
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