Tories Are Hopeful Rishi Sunak Can Swerve Local Elections Backlash From MPs
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (Alamy)
4 min read
Rishi Sunak's allies are growing increasingly hopeful that the Prime Minister will manage to avoid any serious threat to his leadership in the wake of next week's local elections, which are predicted to be bruising for the Conservatives.
Concern that a damaging set of results on 2 May would be enough to prompt Conservative MPs to force a vote of confidence in Sunak has been bubbling under in Westminster for weeks. Just over 50 Tory MPs would need to send letters to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee of Conservative Backbench MPs, in order to trigger a vote.
But as polling day for the local and mayoral elections approaches, there is now a growing belief that Sunak's position may remain safe after all. Senior Tories are particularly confident that Ben Houchen will manage to secure victory in the Tees Valley mayoral election, and that this will be enough to pacify restless Conservative MPs.
Downing Street and Government Whips also believe that the early May bank holiday weekend immediately following Thursday's votes will give restless Conservative MPs a chance to calm down before returning to Parliament even after poor results.
The fates of Houchen and Andy Street – the Conservative incumbent contesting the West Midlands mayoralty – are widely considered to be pivotal in how Conservative backbenchers react to the overall outcome of the local elections. A senior Tory figure said it would be "very tough" for the Prime Minister if both were voted out.
Tory insiders believe Street is "neck and neck" with Labour candidate Richard Parker in the West Midlands ahead of 2 May. A Redfield & Wilton opinion poll published on Thursday put Parker six per cent ahead of Street, by 43 per cent to 37 per cent.
However, Conservatives are confident that even if Street loses, holding onto Houchen would be enough to pacify rebellious Tories with designs on ousting Sunak.
Houchen won the last mayoral contest in 2021 with a massive 72.8 per cent of the vote, and Tory figures are confident that while his lead over Labour will narrow significantly, it won't be enough to produce a stunning victory for Labour candidate Chris McEwan.
Rishi Sunak with Tees Valley mayoral candidate Ben Houchen (Alamy)
At a lunch gathering of Westminster reporters on Thursday, Home Secretary James Cleverly warned Conservative MPs who might be considering sending letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady that another change of party leadership would be a "catastrophically bad idea". Sunak is the third Tory leader and Prime Minister in three years following the dramatic downfalls of his predecessors Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.
“Those people who think that another leadership campaign, as truncated as it might be, between now and the election is anything other than a catastrophically bad idea, I don't get it," Cleverly continued.
“If you’re going to jump out of the aeroplane, please make sure you have a parachute before you leave the aeroplane and don’t say ‘we will work it out on the way down’.”
Cleverly refused to predict the outcomes of the mayoral contests in the Tees Valley and West Midlands, but described the prospect of both Houchen and Street being re-elected as "underpriced".
No 10 hopes that Tory backbenchers' positive reaction to the Rwanda Bill finally receiving Royal Ascent and Sunak's commitment to raise defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030 this week will also help shore up the Prime Minister's position in the event of a gloomy set of local election results.
But a more stable week for Sunak has not been enough to quell speculation about when he will hold a general election, which must be called before the end of this year. Opinion polls continue to suggest the Conservatives are very likely to lose to Labour after 14 years in Government.
On Thursday afternoon, rumours were rife in Westminster that the Prime Minister was preparing to announce on Friday or Monday that he is calling the vote, amid wider speculation that Downing Street is seriously considering going to the polls in the summer.
Publicly, Sunak continues to insist his "working assumption" is that he will hold the election in the "second half" of 2024.
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