The Rundown Podcast: Last Orders For Britain's Pubs?

4 min read18 April

With the Commons in recess, the podcast has headed down to the pub again to discuss the UK’s hospitality industry and the struggles it continues to face. A host of global headwinds and domestic policy contribute to a bleak outlook for the sector in 2025.

Keen listeners will be able to hear that the panel is not in the regular studio but has relocated to The Westminster Arms, just the other side of Parliament Square from the Palace of Westminster, to grab a pint and discuss what the government can do to help this key part of the economy. The third largest employer in the UK, it is estimated to contribute £54bn in tax receipts and £20bn in exports, but also plays a vital role in the country’s social fabric.

Host Alain Tolhurst is joined by Conservative MP Richard Holden, vice chair of the all-party parliamentary group on Pubs and the Shadow Paymaster General, and Morgan Schondelmeier, policy manager on tax and trade at the British Beer and Pub Association.

Alongside them are Ellie Hudspith, campaigns manager for CAMRA, the Campaign for Real Ale, Steve Alton, CEO of the British Institute of Innkeeping, and Jonny Garrett, chair of the British Guild of Beer Writers and co-host of the Craft Beer Channel.

They started by looking at the impact of several changes outlined by Rachel Reeves in the Budget last Autumn, which have come into force this month, after the Chancellor increased National Insurance contributions for employers, ended the business rates relief policy introduced during the pandemic, and raised the minimum wage.

Alton said the combination of all the policies is leading many venues to increase prices, but also cut staff hours: "One in four is making a profit and and before the tax rises it was a really difficult environment because of the inflationary costs, because of staff, and a lot of that embedded inflation that people didn't really understand.

"Energy is another huge issue that hasn't gone away, and what it's done is driven them to make some incredibly tough decisions."

He said a recent survey of its members found 83 per cent are cutting opening hours, both in terms of trading and also hours for staff to work.

"Incredibly distressingly, a lot are now doing payroll and paying the very people that the government was saying are going to have more cash in their pocket, less money, because they can give them less time," he said.

A reliance on part-time workers has meant it is the hospitality and care sectors that have been "really hammered" by the National Insurance change, according to Holden, as businesses that weren't paying any employer contribution before now have to pay 15 per cent of those salaries.

"I spoke to businesses in my constituency over the last few days, some big chains in the hospitality sector, and some individual, smaller pubs, and they're all saying they're under pressure on hours, and I genuinely think this is going to see a combination of, certainly not taking on new staff and reductions in hours for the staff they've got," the former minister said.

"And I fear that for some of these businesses, it's just going to be too much."

The industry has also faced a number of closures, with CAMRA reporting more than 300 pubs closed their doors for good this year so far, while in the wider hospitality sector, AlixPartners warned of a net loss of nearly 3,000 venues over the course of 2025, should current trends continue.

Hudspith explained: "Our volunteers are recording pub closures all across the UK all the time, and also, very sadly, unauthorised demolitions and conversions of pubs despite the planning protections that we have in England, which are the strongest out of anywhere in the UK.

"The worst pub is a shut pub, it's a disaster for the community."

On the brewery side of things, Garrett also said the last few years have been "absolutely brutal", adding: "Just nothing has gone their way.

"We've had Covid, we've had cost rises, the energy price increase was an absolute killer, now we've got cost of living.

"On top of that, we've had the duty changes as well around the production of alcohol, which has been deeply unhelpful, particularly for smaller craft breweries who are very much focused on higher ABV, more interesting, more varied beers, and that's really bitten them.

"It's been really, really hard again."

The Rundown is presented by Alain Tolhurst, produced by Nick Hilton and edited by Ewan Cameron for Podot