Most Labour MPs Believe The Starmer Era Is Over – But No One Is Ready To Replace Him
10 min read
After the worst week of Keir Starmer's premiership, many Labour MPs now regard his government as being in terminal decline. However, with seemingly no potential successor ready to make their move, the Prime Minister staggers on like a "wounded buffalo".
Starmer's admission at PMQs on Wednesday that he knew about the ongoing friendship between Peter Mandelson and paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein when the former was appointed as US ambassador unleashed within the Parliamentary Labour Party a level of fury that many Labour MPs say they had never witnessed before.
Speaking to PoliticsHome immediately following PMQs, one Labour MP elected in 2024 said Starmer lost the Labour backbenches on that day. Describing the mood as they sat behind the Prime Minister, they said: "It wasn't pity. But there was no willing him on."
Starmer is fighting for his political life after extraordinary new details emerged about the man he chose to be his representative in Washington and his relationship with Epstein.
Some Labour MPs have called for Starmer to sack his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, who, as the New Statesman reported in detail this week, was instrumental in the initial decision to appoint Mandelson as ambassador.
I want the government to succeed. We all do. But people have limits, and I just feel ashamed at the moment
Many Labour MPs, particularly those on the left and soft left of the party, had already wanted Starmer's close ally out of the picture, blaming him for the errors that have overshadowed the Labour administration since it came to power and what they believe is a misguided political strategy at the top of government.
“After all we’ve been through, it is clear the people advising the Prime Minister are not up to the job, and there needs to be a change,” Clive Efford, the Labour MP for Eltham and Chislehurst, told PoliticsHome.
A despondent Labour official added: “People feel like there needs to be a head, and that the head has to be Morgan."
A self-described moderate Labour MP said: "I really believe Keir’s a decent person, but by outsourcing the hard politics to Morgan, we’ve all been left exposed.
"I want the government to succeed. We all do. But people have limits, and I just feel ashamed at the moment. We need a kind of moral reset, and that means Morgan has to go. It’s the only way Keir can recover some authority at this point."
Starmer stuck by his chief of staff when asked about his position by Tory leader Kemi Badenoch at PMQs. "Morgan McSweeney is an essential part of my team. He helped me change the Labour Party and win an election. Of course, I have confidence in him," he told the Commons.
"We need a kind of moral reset, and that means Morgan (pictured) has to go," said one Labour MP (Alamy)
Since Wednesday, the PM has sought to defuse the anger in his party. On Thursday, he used a press conference to apologise directly to Epstein's victims for appointing Mandelson, and later hosted Labour backbenchers at Chequers, the country retreat used by UK prime ministers.
For some Labour MPs, however, Starmer's apology does not go far enough.
“Claims of ‘if I had known then what I know now’ simply aren’t cutting it,” said Labour left MP Andy McDonald, adding of Starmer: “The failure to recognise personal error and poor judgement leaves his leadership hanging by a thread.”
Alex Sobel, a soft left MP, suggested that Starmer should consider his position in light of the scandal. "All those who knew Mandelson’s links to Epstein continued after his first conviction must consider whether they should continue in their roles,” he said.
A difficult week, but the hysteria is unwarranted
On Friday, veteran Labour MP Barry Gardiner warned in The House that removing McSweeney from the Downing Street operation would ultimately not be enough for the Prime Minister now. “No single scalp will assuage this sense of decay,” he wrote.
A minister loyal to the PM played down the significance of Labour MPs who have publicly questioned whether Starmer should remain in post. “It’s of note that only MPs speaking publicly to criticise the PM are a handful of hard left headbangers and fantasists.
“A difficult week, but the hysteria is unwarranted,” they said.
John McDonnell, Clive Lewis, Rachael Maskell, Nadia Whittome and Neil Duncan-Jordan, all firmly on the Labour left, are the only Labour MPs so far to explicitly and publicly call for the Prime Minister to go.
A new website called 'Hold the Line' – set up by Jack Dart, a pro-EU, anti-Reform UK campaigner – is encouraging voters to tell their Labour MP to "stand firm" behind the Prime Minister amid his leadership crisis. A tool allows users to identify their MP via their postcode. Loyalist Labour MPs claim they have seen an uptick in constituent emails urging them to stay loyal. One reports that a new member has joined their local party “explicitly to support Keir”.
A key problem for Starmer, as he tries to move on from his bleakest week yet in Downing Street, is that the Mandelson scandal is far from over.
No 10 will be forced to disclose vast volumes of files relating to Mandelson's appointment, which include communications he had with ministers, advisers and officials, including the PM. Gathering this evidence is expected to take months, prolonging the story and likely the embarrassment. A Labour rebellion on Wednesday means it is up to the Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC), not the government, to decide what should be published.
One Labour MP, asked what the appetite of the PLP is for the ISC to publish embarrassing material, replied: “Far greater than the appetite to cover for the poor judgment of Starmer and McSweeney anymore.”
“Genuinely, I think the sense is that we want the truth to come out so that there can be proper accountability,” they added. “I think those colleagues who are still using their platform to denigrate any criticism of Starmer are embarrassing themselves, frankly.”
Supporters of Andy Burnham now accept he is unlikely to be an MP anytime soon (Alamy)
It is against this ominous backdrop that talk of a leadership challenge has ramped up further still. And yet the frontrunners are, for various reasons, currently unable to act on their suspected ambitions.
Andy Burnham is the only touted successor to have made a clear move towards the leadership, but the mayor's chances of swapping Manchester for Downing Street remain extremely slim after Starmer and other senior Labour officials blocked his bid to be the party's candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Although some believe that another Greater Manchester seat will soon be vacated, most Labour MPs have ruled out Burnham as the next leader, as there is nothing to suggest he would be allowed to return to Parliament before the end of his term.
“Andy's operation hasn't felt the most slick, for all his genuine abilities,” one pro-Burnham MP said, citing the mayor's interventions at Labour conference – which provoked a backlash – and his lack of organising to secure votes among Labour's national executive committee officers. PoliticsHome understands that Burnham did not contact the relevant trade union representatives or general secretaries to win them over.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting, considered to be on Labour's right, is another frequently discussed option.
One supporter of a Streeting challenge – despite being outwardly loyal to No 10 – told PoliticsHome they were frustrated by what they saw as the government's undersized response to the Mandelson scandal.
Wes Streeting's own links to Mandelson are seen to have complicated his ambitions (Alamy)
“We need a death of McSweeneyism. Everything McSweeneyist must die,” they said, adding that there should be a “fundamental rethink of the way we do politics” and “Wes understands this better than people think”.
But Streeting would face significant opposition from Labour's left and broader soft left, and is thought by some to be wounded by his own links to Mandelson. He has deleted tweets this week that evidenced his past friendship with the New Labour architect, and accused him of betrayal, saying he “must now suffer the consequences of his actions”.
Several Labour MPs said the links to Mandelson were undoubtedly damaging to Streeting's leadership ambitions. “There’s no way through for Wes while this is fresh in people’s minds,” said an influential Labour MP. "He was Mandelson’s pet project,” added another backbencher.
For others on the 'right' of the Labour Party, armed forces minister Al Carns continues to be discussed as a possibility. PoliticsHome reported in December that he was emerging as a surprise contender in discussions about Starmer's successor.
One MP this week gave it the term “Al-mentum”, though noted: “Al Carns would be a more right-wing prime minister than Thatcher.”
While Carns is a popular figure in parts of the PLP, his lack of political experience – being first elected in 2024 – and lack of organising structure mean his chances are slim.
It is widely thought that any candidate from Labour's right flank would need to acquire the top job through a coronation, as any full leadership contest would go through the party membership – who are further to the left than Labour MPs. But soft left MPs are adamant that they would not allow a fast-tracked takeover to be carried out by a colleague like Streeting.
An HMRC investigation into Rayner's stamp duty error is seen as a barrier to her launching a leadership bid (Alamy)
“The Tribune/centre left are absolutely clear we won’t stand for a coronation, and there will be a centre left candidate,” one influential soft left MP said. Asked who their candidate could be, they said there were “plenty of options”, pointing to Burnham “if he can get in”, deputy leader Lucy Powell, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband or former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner.
Among those, the potential successor with perhaps the most support in the parliamentary party – and potential support among party members – is Rayner.
She played a leading role this week in negotiating the amendment that spared Starmer a major backbench rebellion on how he planned to disclose the Mandelson files, boosting her position among many Labour MPs. “It is time for Angela,” said one MP in the soft left Tribune caucus. Another Labour MP said: “If she’s smart, she’d move now.”
But Starmer's former deputy is still waiting for the conclusion of an HMRC investigation into the stamp duty error that forced her resignation from Cabinet in September. Any prior push for No 10 is considered impossible.
“There are issues with all of them,” said one 2024 intake MP discussing who they would back to succeed Starmer. “Probably Ange if she can get her tax affairs cleared up sufficiently.
“At the very least, I think she would be more inclusive, and ultimately, the main task right now is to unify our base. Plus, she has a populist edge to her that can be effective in this climate. My main issue is credibility post her tax issue.”
They added that they had been “open-minded” about Streeting but not anymore, explaining that they would be “frankly not touching that with a barge poll post-Mandelson”.
A Labour MP who favours Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood as the next leader told PoliticsHome: “Those suggesting the former deputy prime minister as an option are ignoring the fact that an investigation is still hanging over them. Putting someone without a clean sheet into power would be reckless."
“Neither [Streeting nor Rayner] is in the strongest position to take the reins should the PM have to resign. This may help Starmer to keep limping on for now," observed a Labour MP elected in 2024.
He's lost his authority, and only something very substantial could save him
The lack of an obvious successor is why many Labour figures believe Starmer could fight on. “Starmer will survive for now as the logistics of replacing him are currently too messy. This is something many are not thinking about,” said one Labour peer.
"However, he's lost his authority, and only something very substantial could save him. We saw this with Thatcher, who was facing a tough reception until the Falklands. A similar crisis would save Starmer, but it's not likely or desirable.”
Despite the torrid week, a minister said they would now “put money on” Starmer lasting the year – or a “unifying figure” such as Defence Secretary John Healey taking over. Asked how the latter scenario could unfold, they speculated: “May is bad. People move. Rayner not ready... Wes recognises he can’t win. There’s nobody else.”
A long-serving Labour MP added: “Starmer seems to be dead in the water. However, like a wounded buffalo, he forges forward with the end in sight.”
Reporting by Harriet Symonds, Matilda Martin, Zoë Crowther, Sienna Rodgers and Adam Payne
