The Breakfast Briefing: Boris’s lockdown plan, Bank’s recession warning, Keir vs Corbyn
4 min read
Your essential morning guide to what’s moving in Westminster from the PoliticsHome team
Commons Speaker Lindsay Hoyle must be choking on his Frosties this morning as he casts an eye over the newspaper front pages - packed with briefings on what the easing of lockdown restrictions will look like from Monday, without a hint of Parliamentary debate first.
The PM made it known yesterday that some easing of measures will come at the start of next week after his Sunday address to the nation and today’s Cabinet meeting to review the curbs.
The toplines are that the message to the public is likely to shift from that ubiquitous ‘Stay Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives’ slogan to a rather less-definitive ‘Stay Safe, Save Lives’ (that message is already being used on some government Twitter accounts). Sunbathing and picnics in parks will be permitted, as the one-hour time restriction on exercise is lifted and repeated trips out of the house are given the thumbs-up - so long as that two-metre social distancing rule is respected.
The potential return of open-air markets and cafes with outdoor spaces is also being floated, while we already know that the Government has been in talks with businesses and unions about a limited return to a supremely-socially-distanced version of work in some sectors. But anyone hoping to hit the gym (or the pub) hard will have longer to wait, it seems, and The Mirror reports this morning that large gatherings will not see a return until the autumn. With the official number of Covid-19 deaths topping 30,000 yesterday and the latest daily toll coming in at a worryingly high 649, it’s clear why ministers, despite the breathless briefings, will be taking a softly-softly approach.
A pro tip for Sir Keir this morning: uninstall Twitter
On the other side of the ledger of course, is the huge impact the shutdown of normal life is having on the economy. There is mightily grim news from the Bank of England this morning, with the central bank forecasting that the economy will shrink by as much as 30% in the three months to June - with unemployment expected to soar by 9%. And any recovery, minutes from its Monetary Policy Committee say, is dependent on the lockdown being eased.
"The illustrative scenario incorporates a very sharp fall in UK GDP in 2020 and a substantial increase in unemployment in addition to those workers who are furloughed currently," it says. "Given the assumed path for the relaxation of social distancing measures, the fall in GDP should be temporary and activity should pick up relatively rapidly. Nonetheless, because a degree of precautionary behaviour by households and businesses is assumed to persist, the economy takes some time to recover towards its previous path."
In these uncertain times, though, there are some reassuring constants. Labour’s forever war looks set to continue this morningthanks to a cracking Financial Times feature on Keir Starmer’s new direction.
The ex-public prosecutor, who impressed in his first PMQs clash with Boris Johnson yesterday, appears to pin the blame on Jeremy Corbyn for the party’s election defeat as he tells the paper that his predecessor came up repeatedly on the doorstep. “The leadership of Labour party was number one, fair or unfair,” he says. Sir Keir also hits back at critics of his pro-second referendum stance, saying anybody who believes it was just Brexit that cost the party victory is “heading for problems” next time around.
A pro tip for Sir Keir this morning: uninstall Twitter. Have a cup of tea. Maybe take a walk outside. Just don’t make it more than an hour just yet.
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