Trump Win Could Force UK Into “Temporary Realignment”
4 min read
Emily Thornberry, the new chair of the foreign affairs committee, told PoliticsHome a victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would force the UK into a “temporary realignment”.
Thornberry, who became chair of the committee in September, said Trump was "unpredictable" and "has a reputation for tending to agree with the last person who he was in a room with", which could make things challenging for the UK from a geopolitical perspective.
“It's going to be very difficult to predict what Donald Trump is going to do, and that's part of the problem," said Thornberry, the MP for Islington South and Finsbury.
Thornberry said the UK may have to "look again" at its relationship with the US if Trump weakens American support for NATO.
"There's lots of things that he's said, and whether he goes ahead with it, nobody knows... if you go on what he said with regards to NATO that would be a challenge.
"And Britain would need to, whilst obviously continuing to be close friends with America, would need to look again at how our interests are served.
"If we have an American president who wants America to pull out of NATO — we don't know, but he said that, there are many other examples — we would need to think again about: how will NATO work best? What role will we play in those circumstances?"
Thornberry also said Trump's threats to impose tariffs on global trade could have an impact on British interests.
"If you take him at his word he's threatening 20 per cent tariffs on Britain's exports to America," said Thornberry.
"We export more to America than we do any to any other country.
"Obviously, most of it is services, but nevertheless, the stuff that we export is going to have 20 per cent tariffs on, that's going to make life very difficult — and we'll need to decide how we're going to deal with that."
Emily Thornberry MP (Alamy)
Thornberry said a Trump presidency could affect the UK's closeness to other countries, arguing "Britain works best when it works with other countries" and needs to spend time with allies that are "predictable".
"In the Middle East, are we likely to find ourselves more aligned with our European friends and neighbours on Middle East than a Trump presidency?" said Thornberry.
"We have no idea where he's going to go on that, and the same on Ukraine, so we're likely to have to respond to what it is that he's going to do.
"But the trouble is we don't know what he's actually going to do. All we know is what he says, And he doesn't necessarily do what he says."
She added: "Trump says is that he will make a deal with Putin between the time when he's elected and when he's sworn in... that looks like looks like surrender.
"This is something that would need to be ironed out, to say the least, between Ukraine and its allies and Trump if he thinks that he can go off on his own and make a deal with Putin."
Professor Yossi Mekelberg, a fellow at Chatham House, said he believed it was not just the UK's role that would change on the international stage in the event of a Trump victory.
"It's' members of NATO in general," said Mekelberg, telling PoliticsHome Trump would expect the UK, Germany and France to play a bigger role in contributing to global defence.
"This was the theme of Trump in his first term, and it's going to be the same thing in a new administration."
Like Thornberry, Mekelberg told PoliticsHome Trump's unpredictability also created challenges, particularly on issues like western support for Ukraine amid Russia's invasion.
"The problem with Trump is his unpredictability, his volatility," said Mekelberg.
"Who knows what he's going to do? It might change rapidly, because there is no coherent line, and it's not a secret...
"When it comes to Ukraine... there might be a very different approach than the Biden administration: cutting back, not supporting Ukraine as much, and in this case it would be countries like the UK and others who will have to step up."
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