UK Faces "Huge, Huge Problem" If Trump Doesn't Honour NATO Responsibilities
5 min read
Liberal Democrat MP Mike Martin, who sits on the defence committee, has warned that the UK and Europe face a "huge, huge problem" if president elect Donald Trump doesn't support a NATO ally against Russian aggression.
The former soldier, who was elected the new MP for Tunbridge Wells on 4 July, said the Government will "inevitably" have to spend more money on the military in this new global context.
Trump was declared the winner of the US presidential election on Wednesday after he defeated Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris.
Western leaders offered Trump their congratulations after he became the first former president in over 130 years to return to the White House. Prime Minister Keir Starmer described the result as an "historic election victory", and said that "the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come".
However, the prospect of a second Trump presidency has sparked concern in the international community about the potential repercussions on foreign policy, particularly US support for Ukraine and the superpower's involvement in NATO.
Trump has previously said he would end Russia's war in Ukraine within "24 hours", and that "Zelensky [Ukraine's president] should never have let that war start". He also described Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine as "genius" and "savvy". Speaking at a rally earlier this year, Trump said he would allow Russia to do "whatever the hell they want” to NATO countries not meeting their responsibilities on defence spending.
Martin said the UK and Europe have to start "grappling" with the possibility that the US decides not to fulfil its obligations to NATO with Trump in charge.
“At the moment, we have all committed — in America, Britain, France, Poland — to defend Latvia, for instance. Just pick a random country in the Balkans," he told PoliticsHome.
"If Russia decides that they want to have a nibble at Latvia... by the rights of NATO, all the European states and America should be seeking to deploy troops and defend that country.
"But what if America suddenly decides not to, and Trump says: ‘I don't care about Latvia’. Then what? Then the European countries are left to say: do we go? Do we not go?"
"It's a huge, huge, huge problem."
The committee member added: "What America provides to NATO is the backbone.
"The European countries are able to operate in NATO as long as there's an American backbone providing things like logistics and intelligence. If America is not there, what does European NATO, the rump of NATO, look like?"
The foreign affairs committee's chair, Labour MP and former shadow cabinet minister Emily Thornberry, this week told PoliticsHome that a Trump victory could force the UK into "temporary realignment" on foreign affairs because the Republican is so "unpredictable".
Speaking hours before Trump's victory was confirmed, Thornberry said the UK may have to "look again" at how it works with the US if Trump weakens American support for NATO.
Mike Martin, Lib Dem MP for Tunbridge Wells (Alamy)
Lib Dem MP Martin said Britain needed to "state very clearly" what its strategy is to "deter Russia" from heading further west on a military campaign.
At the heart of this, he told PoliticsHome, is close cooperation with other European governments because the UK doesn't have the "global role" that it used to.
But it will also "inevitably" require the Government to spend more money on making sure the British military has the resources it needs to provide regional security, he said.
NATO asks members to spend at least 2 per cent of their GDP on defence. Starmer has pledged to raise the UK's spending on defence to 2.5 per cent but has not yet set out a specific timeline for hitting that target.
"We'll probably need less of some capabilities and more of other capabilities, we might change what we've got in our inventory and our force mix," said Martin.
"And then we'll certainly also look at it and say: ‘You know what, the whole thing's under-resourced'. For example, we need more artillery, because we've given all of the artillery to Ukraine and haven't replaced it. Like for like, we need more munitions.
"There’s a whole bunch of things that you can look at and say, ‘We're not able to do these things if we're going to offer regional security in this area'.
"That requires, inevitably, more money."
Martin also acknowledged that the situation posed a sensitive diplomatic challenge for the UK to ensure that it maintains a close relationship with the US while also preparing for the possibility of Washington playing a diminished role in maintaining global security.
“This doesn't mean that we're not going to carry on having a very close relationship with America. Far from it, we want the best relationship possible with America," said Martin.
"What it means is a recognition that there may be a chance at some unspecified points in the future that America will not provide a security guarantee to us. Therefore, we need to be able to have strategic autonomy in Europe to defend ourselves."
Martin said he hoped Starmer would use the ongoing Strategic Defence Review as the opportunity to have a "really deep, hard look" at the UK's military capabilities in this new geopolitical context of a Trump-led US. The Prime Minister launched the review in July shortly after winning the General Election. It will be overseen by Defence Secretary John Healy.
"It is a real shift in our thinking, our capabilities, and our resourcing levels. And the Review is obviously the vehicle through which to produce that," said Martin.
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