Voters Feel More Optimistic After Labour's Election Win

Adam Payne

@adampayne26

The poll, conducted by Thinks Insight and Strategy and shared exclusively with PoliticsHome, found that net optimism had grown from -23 in March to -7 in July.

The online survey was carried out in the days following last week's election (5-8 July), and interviewed 2,422 people nationwide.

The findings suggest the change in government — the first Labour election victory since Tony Blair's in 2005 — has caused people to feel less pessimistic about the year ahead facing the UK.

Most optimistic are people who voted for Keir Starmer's Labour on 4 July, with net optimism among these people being +41. The least optimistic were those who voted for Nigel Farage's Reform UK, whose net optimism was net -44.

The results suggest voters are prepared to be patient with the Government as it tries to deal with a large in-tray of problems like the overcrowded prison estate, NHS waiting times and cost of living.

Nearly two thirds of people (62 per cent) said that even if the Starmer administration is effective, "it will take a year or two before we start seeing improvement." Around a third (29 per cent), meanwhile, said they would expect to see "real improvement within the next year" if the Government is effective.

This finding will likely come as good news to Prime Minister Starmer and his newly-assembled ministers, who have repeatedly sought to stress the scale of the challenge they face after replacing the Tories in Downing Street, and in recent days have said the issues they inherited are even worse than they initially realised.

Speaking in the US on Thursday, Starmer said the crisis in prisons, where the Government has been forced to release some prisoners early to prevent the estate running out of space, was "worse" than he thought it was. "I’m pretty shocked that it’s been allowed to get into that situation. It’s reckless to allow them to get into that place," the Prime Minister said.

Over 40 per cent of people said they believed things in the UK will have improved in two years' time, with 35 per cent saying things will be "a little better" and six per cent saying things will be "much better". Meanwhile 27 per cent felt things will have changed for the worse.

And while 41 per cent said the new Labour Government "could really improve things over the next five years", a larger share (47 per cent) said the problems facing the country are "too big for any government to really get to grips with".

Improving NHS waiting times (55 per cent), alleviating the cost of living (54 per cent) and growing the economy (37 per cent) were ranked by respondents as the three biggest priorities for the Starmer Government.

Stopping small boats crossings was the fourth most important priority at 29 per cent. Nearly three-quarters of Reform voters (69 per cent) and around half of Tory voters (47 per cent) ranked this among their top three priorities.

The poll found that small boats is where voters are less expectant of government progress. Just 11 per cent expected positive results on reducing crossings, while 82 per cent said that was unlikely. 

On the other hand, more people (48 per cent) expect NHS waiting times to fall than those who said it was unlikely (40 per cent). 

Respondents were essentially split (42 per cent likely vs 43 per cent unlikely) on whether the cost of living situation would improve under the new regime.

A week on from election, the survey provides fresh insights into how Labour was able to win the biggest majority secured by any party since the second world war, and what led Rishi Sunak's Conservatives to such a crushing defeat.

Starmer, who became Labour's seventh ever prime minister, benefitted most from the six-week campaign compared with his leadership rivals, the data suggests.

Twenty one per cent said their opinion of Starmer "changed for the better" over the campaign. Fourteen per cent said it "changed for the worse", while 58 per cent said it made no difference.

When it came to Sunak, who is remaining as Tory leader until the party chooses his successor, nearly one third of people (32 per cent) said their opinion of him got worse over the election campaign, while six per cent said it got better. Fifty seven per cent said it made no difference.

The results further crystallise just how poorly the Conservative party brand was seen in the eyes of the voters when Sunak took the surprise decision to hold a summer election.

Across the board, nearly a quarter (23 per cent) of respondents said they strongly considered at least one party other than the one they ended up voting for.

However, the Conservatives were least likely to receive any consideration at all from those who voted elsewhere. Only 17 per cent who didn’t vote for the Tories say they considered doing so. Only three per cent "strongly" considered voting Conservative.

On the other hand, more than double that figure (36 per cent) of those who did not vote Labour on 4 July considered doing so.

Nearly two thirds (60 per cent) of people said it would take more than one general election for the Tories to be competitive again, compared with 24 per cent who said the party could be competitive by the time the country next goes to the polls.

The findings provide further evidence of the key role tactical voting played at the election.

Exactly a quarter told the survey said they voted tactically to stop a party they disliked from winning. This was highest among people who voted for Ed Davey's Liberal Democrats, with 40 per cent of these people saying they voted tactically.

The Lib Dems overturned huge Tory majorities in the south of England to unseat senior Conservatives like former education secretary Gillian Keegan. Her majority in the constituency of Chicester heading into the election was 21,490. The party won 72 House of Commons seats to become parliament's third party — its best ever general election result.

In the run-up to the election, a PoliticsHome trip to North Norfolk – which the Lib Dems won from the Tories on 4 July – found Labour supporters who were actively canvassing for Davey's party in order to defeat the Tory candidate Duncan Baker.

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