Voters Have Not Given Up With Labour Despite Its Poor Start, New Poll Suggests
5 min read
A new poll suggests most people who voted Labour in July believe the Government can turn things around despite being disappointed by the party's first 100 days in power.
Research carried out by Thinks Insight and Strategy and shared exclusively with PoliticsHome paints a gloomy picture of how voters feel about the Government and the state of the country four months on from Labour's historic General Election victory.
Net optimism among the public has fallen to -35, according to the new poll, down from -7 in the days immediately following the 4 July election. Among people who voted Labour in July, net optimism has fallen from +41 to -11.
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When asked to rate the performance of Keir Starmer's Government so far, over half of the 2,343 people who responded to the poll (53 per cent) said it had been 'bad' or 'very bad'. Just 10 per cent said 'good' or 'very good', while 37 per cent said neither or don't know.
People who voted Labour in July were split on how the new administration had performed. Twenty seven per cent rated it as good, while 30 per cent said it was bad.
Reform voters (88 per cent) and Tory voters (82 per cent) were most likely to characterise the Government's performance over its first 100 days in power as bad.
While the findings make tough reading for the Starmer Government after a shaky first few months in power, there were some glimmers of positivity.
Of the 2024 Labour voters who said the party's performance in office so far had been bad, three quarters (74 per cent) said there is "at least a small chance" they will be able to turn it around before the next election.
"These results are a warning sign for Labour, but not a death sentence," Max Templer, Director of Thinks Insight & Strategy, told PoliticsHome.
"Whilst a majority of the public think the new government have made a bad start, just 5 per cent of Labour's voters in the last election have given up all hope they can turn things around."
He added: "After a brief spike in optimism following the general election result in July, levels of pessimism about the UK’s prospects appear to have fallen back down to the levels we saw at the end of 2023.
"This reflects the long run trend we've observed over recent years, where pessimism about the country is the default, and moments of optimism seem to be both rare and short lived."
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Labour's victory over Rishi Sunak's Tories in early July represented a major electoral feat but the party has experienced a rocky start to life in government. Prime Minister Starmer's personal ratings have plummeted in recent weeks, and at the same time Labour's leads over the Conservatives in the opinion polls have narrowed significantly.
The Government decision to move the winter fuel payment to a means-tested arrangement sparked backlash from opposition parties, and this new research shared with PoliticsHome suggests that policy has comfortably had more negative cut through than any other talking point.
Thirty eight per cent of respondents referenced the winter fuel decision when asked about the worst thing the Government had done so far — far more than any other issue, including recent stories about Starmer and other ministers accepting donations.
“When it comes to the negatives, the removal of the winter fuel allowance has had widespread cut through," said Templer.
"Perhaps surprisingly, given the intensity of the coverage immediately before and during the fieldwork period (7-8 October), 'donations' 'gifts' and 'freebies' are far less frequently mentioned.
"One way of interpreting that may be that whilst freebies and the like are 'expected' from politicians, the winter fuel issue was more shocking from this government."
On the other hand, 67 per cent of people said either don’t know, nothing or something similar when asked about the best thing Labour has done in during its first 100 days in power.
In a tacit recognition that his first months in power had not been smooth-sailing, Starmer last week made several major changes to his No10 operation.
The Prime Minister replaced Sue Gray with his long-term ally Morgan McSweeney as his Chief of Staff, and brought in former NHS and TikTok head of communications James Lyons in an attempt to boost the Downing Street media operation, among other personnel changes.
The PM's official spokesperson told PoliticsHome it was "right to reflect on the first weeks and months in office to ensure that you have the right structures in place going forward to deliver the change for the country".
The Thinks Insight and Strategy findings suggest voters have become less patient with the Government since it first entered office in early July.
When the company surveyed people in July, 29 per cent said they expected to see ministers deliver results within a year, while 62 per cent said it would take up to two years before the country starts seeing improvements brought about by the Government.
According to this new research, however, 41 per cent of respondents said they would expect to see improvements in the next year, while 51 per cent said it will take up to two years to see results.
That said, a clear majority of people (59 per cent) feel the issues facing the country are the fault of the previous Conservative government, compared with those respondents (28 per cent) who said the Labour administration is to blame for the state of the UK.
Thinks Insight & Strategy conducted a nationally representative online survey of 2,343 UK adults aged 18+. Fieldwork took place between 7th-8th October 2024. Data were weighted to the UK adult population in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, socio-economic background and region, and to reflect voting behaviour in the 2024 General Election (turnout & party share).
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