Tory Hopes Are Hanging On The West Midlands Mayoral Race
The West Midlands has been described as an electoral "bellwether" by experts. (Alamy)
8 min read
Conservative nerves are on a knife-edge ahead of the local elections this week, and those still hoping their party might have a fighting chance of avoiding obliteration at the next general election will be paying particularly close attention to the West Midlands.
Polling data has indicated a narrow race for the West Midlands mayoralty between Conservative incumbent Andy Street and Labour's candidate Richard Parker. Electoral experts predict that the winner will be a "bellwether" for how the demographically diverse region could swing at the general election. A loss of Street in the Midlands or Teeside's Tory mayor Ben Houchen in the North East when voters go to the polls this Thursday is also widely considered to be the next possible touch-point for a fresh combustion of the volatile parliamentary Conservative party.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak must call a general election before the end of this year, and a chaotic few years for his party has translated into near-certainty that Labour will be returned as the next government. Street, tellingly, has distanced his mayoral campaign from the broader Conservative brand, having already faced off against Downing Street when Sunak scrapped the Birmingham to Manchester leg of high speed railway HS2 at Conservative party conference last year.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at polling company Savanta, observed that Street was fighting the mayoral race "as close to an independent as a Conservative candidate can be", which he believed was likely to play to the incumbent candidate's advantage.
"Much is made of his literature and how it doesn't really reference the party," he told PoliticsHome.
"It's maybe not a bad strategy for him because he is reasonably popular locally. He is in a position where he's aiming to buck the national trend as best as possible. Obviously he sees that his best chance to do that is to highlight his good record, play on that incumbency factor, and also just not associate himself with a psychodrama of the Conservative Party for the last couple of years."
The West Midlands mayoralty was established in 2017 and represents almost 3 million people across Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton. Street has exclusively held the position since its creation.
In 2021, when the West Midlands mayoralty was last contested, Street secured a comfortable victory over Labour's candidate, the MP Liam Byrne, with 48.7 per cent of the vote compared to Byrne's 39.7 per cent. But recent polling indicates that in line with national trends, Labour has now overtaken the Tories.
A poll by Redfield and Wilton earlier this month placed Labour's Parker at 42 per cent and Street at 28 per cent, with Reform's candidate Elaine Williams predicted to take 13 per cent of the vote. While a further poll released by Redfield and Wilton on Thursday showed Reform's share shrink to four per cent, boosting Street to 37 per cent, Parker remained in front with 43 per cent. A Savanta poll placed Labour's Parker at 41 per cent, Conservative Street at 38 per cent, and Reform's Williams at six per cent.
Labour MP for Birmingham Edgbaston and shadow minister Preet Kaur Gill agreed that Street's campaign had worn its Tory colours lightly, but that ultimately the mayoral race would be decided by whether people felt motivated enough to turn up to re-elect him.
"What's interesting is Andy's distanced himself from the Conservative brand, because he will have his own personal vote – he references himself as being an unpolitical politician," she told PoliticsHome.
"But the fundamental issue is: do people feel that Andy Street and the West Midlands Combined Authority has made a direct impact on their lives?"
'This is about choosing an individual leader'
Street told PoliticsHome that he was fighting the 2 May election as an "individual leader", and was keen to separate himself from the national Conservatives, but disputed that the party's sullied brand was a driving factor.
"This is a vote for who is best placed to lead the West Midlands, and therefore my honest advice would be don't read too much of the national significance into it," he said.
"People here, and in the mayoral elections across the country, demonstrate that they understand that this is the election about choosing the one person to lead the region."
Conservative West Midlands mayor Andy Street has described himself as an "individual leader" for the region. (Alamy)
Street, who has been elected to the position twice, argued that he took a similar approach to personal campaigning in 2017 and 2021 when the national party enjoyed much stronger polling.
"Some people find this hard to get their brains around, but this is choosing a regional leader, it is about: 'is Andy Street the right person to do this job?' And that is why the leaflets are about me and my record, so it is utterly consistent," he continued.
"I've been a member of the Conservative Party for decades, and proud of the Conservative Party over the years. But this is not about party politics, this is about choosing an individual leader."
Street was sanguine about how much weight was being given to significance of the West Midlands result for the overall party's fate next week, noting that it is "always watched closely by the real political gurus" because of how finely balanced the region is politically.
"At the last general election there were 14 Conservative MPs, 14 Labour MPs, three Conservative councils, four Labour councils, one Conservative mayor – so it could not be more balanced," he said.
'The West Midlands has always been treated as a bellwether'
Labour's West Midlands mayoral candidate Richard Parker said the result of the race will be a "very good indication" of how the general election could play out. (Alamy)
Labour's mayoral candidate Parker also noted the uniquely balanced demographic in the West Midlands, and was confident that the result of this week's locals would be a "very good indication of what the outcome of the next general election is likely to be".
"I think the West Midlands has always been treated as a bellwether because of the nature of the constituencies and their variety," he told PoliticsHome.
"It's always been seen as a typical representation of what the country might be feeling. We've got some bits of it that are more like the north east, and some of it fits more like the south east."
Parker is treating his poll lead over Street with extreme caution, and campaigning as though they are "neck and neck".
"Polling across this region is actually quite tough, so we've just been working hard and getting on, and getting our message out there and campaigning on the doorsteps," he said.
"We think the politics in this region are changing but we also know the key thing will be for people to vote, so we're genuinely not taking notice of the polls, we just need to know that we need to campaign hard and get the people that want to vote for us to vote for Labour."
Savanta's Hopkins also felt the region was "really important for how the next election will play out".
"It has its associations with the red wall, and being a traditional Labour seat that's obviously fallen away from the Labour Party over the last couple of elections," he said.
"I guess that, frankly, led to a Conservative being the only mayor that Westminster the West Midlands has ever had.
"Labour winning here would be a bigger deal than regaining other parts of the red wall such as the north east and the north west, that feels a bit more of a foregone conclusion than parts of the West Midlands."
The West Midlands mayoralty covers 2.8m people across the region. (Alamy)
Reform could decide the winner
Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, was keen to point out that Reform UK will also likely impact the result in a region that he saw as "one of the most hotly contested mayoralties, if not the most hotly contested mayoralty in this year's election cycle".
"It does look very likely that Reform's performance could play a big role in whether or not Andy Street survives," he added.
Hopkins agreed that Reform's level of support could ultimately be pivotal. "If Reform do end up closer to the Redfield and Wilton numbers than ours, that does make a Labour victory significantly more straightforward," he said.
"If Reform's numbers are closer to us then it'd probably imply a much closer race. If Andy Street can continue to harness some of those Conservative-to-Reform switches, then maybe that is one path to victory that he needs to look at."
Reform's candidate Elaine Williams, told PoliticsHome she was standing in the mayoral race to "give an opportunity for the people to vote for something different", and said Street and Parker's policy offering was remarkably similar. She also rejected suggestions from some Conservatives that a vote for Reform was a vote for Labour, describing the claims as "absolutely rubbish".
"I've been out on the streets, and I've had bus drivers call me over, they want to take literature to give out to people," she said.
"We're just having an influx of people taking leaflets and wanting to give them out to neighbours and friends.
"A vote for a vote for Reform is entirely a vote for Reform. At the end of the day, people have now got a choice to make."
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