100 days after the election, the true winner has emerged: partisan motivated reasoning
6 min read
100 days isn’t really a long time.
Unless you voted Conservative on July 4th that is. In which case it’s seemingly long enough to start blaming the country’s woes on the new Labour Government. In our most recent survey, the details of which are covered elsewhere on PoliticsHome, when asked to select between two statements, 59 per cent of the 2,343 respondents chose ‘the issues facing the country right now are mostly the fault of the previous Conservative Government’ while just 28 per cent said those same issues are ‘mostly the fault of the current Labour Government’. Among those who voted Conservative in July, fully 62 per cent blame the current Labour administration for the issues facing the country, while only 29 per cent blame the last Tory government.
Looked at in one way, this seems unremarkable – of course people are defensive of parties they vote for, and take the opportunity to bash the opposition when answering polling questions. But Labour have been in power less than four months, and the issues voters identify now are pretty much the same as those they have been raising (and blaming the government for) in our focus groups and polling for at least the last two years.
Given how low-engagement the election campaign was, and how disengaged voters often seem to be from politics overall, we feel the extent of partisan thinking revealed in our survey is worth dwelling on:
As might be expected, judgements about the early performance of the new Labour government are heavily related to whether you voted for it or not. Whilst 53 per cent of UK adults rate the government’s performance so far as ‘bad’ or ‘very bad’; this rises to 82 per cent of Conservative voters and 88 per cent of Reform voters. Labour voters, on the other hand, are much less willing to admit that the party has made a poor start – just 30 per cent say the government’s first 100 days was ‘bad’ or ‘very bad’. At first glance, the fact ‘only’ 41 per cent of Lib Dem voters say the government has performed badly seems to suggest their vote in July is less closely tied to their view. But it’s worth remembering that 40 per cent of Lib Dem voters in our post-election survey told us they voted tactically. So many likely preferred Labour, but voted Lib Dem to ensure the Conservatives didn’t win in their area.
How people voted is similarly correlated to their assessments of whether Labour can ‘turn it around’ in the coming months and years. 74 per cent of Labour voters who admit the government has made a bad start say there’s a chance the party can ‘turn it around’. By contrast only 25 per cent of Conservatives and 19 per cent of Reform voters who think the government are doing badly are prepared to countenance the idea they could get things back on track. In similar, but opposite, fashion Conservative voters are the only ones who are more likely to select a statement saying the Tories will be ‘back in the running by the next election’ over one saying they will ‘take more than one election to be competitive again’.
Party choice at the election seems to colour the way voters make moral judgements too
So far, so predictable. But the effects appear to go deeper and further. Party choice at the election seems to colour the way voters make moral judgements too: While 73 per cent of Labour voters feel that the ‘lockdown parties’ under the last government were ‘more serious and bad’ than recent news stories about Keir Starmer accepting gifts, fully 78 per cent of Conservative voters feel the PM’s gifts are ‘as serious and bad’ as ‘Partygate’.
The real kicker is this, though: Not only does how they voted 100 days ago relate to how people judge party leaders’ actions and missteps, our survey suggests people may even be more open to admitting their own moral frailty, if doing so also lets the leader of their chosen party off the hook! 41 per cent of Labour voters select the statement “if I’m completely honest, if I were a politician I would probably accept free tickets to concerts and sporting events when I was offered them” (over a statement saying they would turn down those offers). In contrast only 23 per cent of Conservative voters admit the same.
For us at Thinks Insight & Strategy, the relationship between vote choice in July and current views feel at the same time unsurprising and counterintuitive:
It’s a commonplace of political discussion that our political culture is becoming more and more polarised, and our own work on mis-and-disinformation and counter extremism deals with many of these issues on a daily basis. To that extent, and given just how powerful we know ‘motivated reasoning’ and ‘confirmation bias’ to be for people’s attitudes and behaviours, it’s hardly surprising that people align many of their views to how they voted in July (especially when it’s pretty much costless to answer polling questions in a way that expresses your political views, even if they’re not your actual thoughts).
On the other hand, most people, including most voters, just don’t care that much about politics. So why would they bother to align their views in this way? We know that partisan identification – the extent to which people would describe themselves (to a pollster) as a ‘Labour’ or ‘Tory’ person - has been in decline for decades. Furthermore, our work around the last election made plain just how little faith or attachment many felt to the party they ended up voting for. In this context it seems at the very least interesting that what many saw as a forced choice between two poor options should have such a tight relationship to how people view politics, the country, and even themselves 100 days later.
To be explored further. Watch this space…
Ben Shimshon, CEO, Thinks Insight & Strategy and Max Templer, Director, Thinks Insight & Strategy
Thinks Insight & Strategy conducted a nationally representative online survey of 2,343 UK adults aged 18+. Fieldwork took place between 7th-8th October 2024. Data were weighted to the UK adult population in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, socio-economic background and region, and to reflect voting behaviour in the 2024 General Election (turnout & party share).
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