An ambitious trade deal with Germany won’t necessarily lead to closer relations with Europe
4 min read
Keir Starmer has met the German Chancellor five times since becoming Prime Minister.
The ambitious, bilateral treaty being negotiated between the two governments may serve as a litmus test for what comes next as attention turns to resetting the UK’s relationship with the European Union.
Having spent a year studying in Hanover, with half my family living in Bavaria, Germany is a country I know well. So, it was a pleasure to take part in a cross-party, Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) delegation to Berlin in September and speak with German MPs from all major parties in the Bundestag.
Throughout my visit, there was a clear desire from all parties to move on from Brexit, which dominated the last decade, and instead find practical solutions to work more closely with the UK.
On security and defence, there was unanimous support for Ukraine and working closer with our European allies to ensure that Putin’s unlawful invasion cannot succeed.
France and the UK formalised their relationship covering defence matters in 2010’s Lancaster House treaty, and our German counterparts will be looking to that agreement for inspiration.
On the German side, there is a clear ambition for greater access to British universities, closer co-operation on tackling the climate emergency and securing energy supplies, as well as greater cross-border work in tackling unlawful migration.
This speaks to the Labour government’s desire to grow the economy and smash the criminal gangs smuggling people across the Channel. Yet, unlike in Whitehall, the German government remains a traffic light coalition of the social democrats, greens and liberals forced to hash out compromises which speak to its wider electoral base and presents unique challenges.
With the onset of US presidential elections in November, there is an eagerness on both sides to negotiate a durable, long-term agreement as soon as possible. One which speaks to Germany’s manufacturing strengths and recognises the UK’s strengths in services such as technology, finance and education.
Against that background, there are recurring similarities between the two nations. The rise of the Eurosceptic, far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and far-left, populist Bűndnis Sahra Wagenknecht parties in recent state elections in the former east echoes concerns in the UK about the rise of extremist political voices, the spread of disinformation and voters’ concerns around border security.
There is goodwill on both sides and a genuine desire to share expertise at a government level. Deepening that desire to span cultural, economic, security and even parliamentary relationships must come next, harnessing the opportunity presented by the treaty.
With that in mind, the Prime Minister is right to seek a closer relationship with Germany, but we must remain clear-eyed about extrapolating the output of bilateral negotiations to dealing with the EU27.
UK-EU negotiations may focus on potential quick wins for both sides. But there is a wider reset to be struck, leveraging German goodwill, which, on the European side respects the integrity of the Single Market, and on the UK side doesn’t relitigate the Brexit debates but which finally resolves the issues which the last government didn’t ‘get done’.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s 2022 Zeitenwende speech to the Bundestag, confirming a commitment to spend two per cent of GDP on defence and invest €100bn into the German armed forces, marked an historic change in German foreign policy. Two years on, Russia’s unlawful full-scale invasion of Ukraine has catalysed a fundamental re-appraisal of Germany’s role in Nato and the EU, as well as with key non-EU members such as the UK.
Negotiations with Germany don’t necessarily translate to those with the European Commission. But a successful bilateral agreement between the two countries would signal the opportunities present in future alignment on key issues, generating tangible goodwill with the largest European economy as well as a key security and defence partner.
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