As a Tory, I hope for the world's sake that Kamala Harris wins
4 min read
My trip to the US hammered home just what a nasty presidential election we have in store. But it is a vital one, too, and as a Conservative who identifies with the traditions of Eisenhower and Reagan, I hope Kamala Harris wins.
September has come and gone in the United States, and the leaves in New England are starting their journey to golden browns and reds as the Fall gathers pace. That is where my Alistair Cooke “Letter from America” vibe begins and ends. The world has moved on since his gentle expositions of twentieth century US politics, turbulent though it might have felt at the time.
The forthcoming US Presidential election is shaping up to be the nastiest and most expensive yet. The number of yard signs indicating the looming election is steadily increasing, from large MAGA pro-Donald Trump displays to “Vote for the Prosecutor, not the Felon” signs for Kamala Harris. The deep political divisions mean that very often it just isn’t a subject for discussion between friends and neighbours.
Last month, during my return to Harvard and then over to more traditionally Republican parts of Connecticut, I have been speaking to voters and getting a closer look at an election that comes at a crucial time in world politics.
This is the first US election in quite a few years where I am not in Government or frontline politics, so I am free of observing the necessary conventions about overseas elections. It is my hope that the US avoids the chaos and uncertainty of a second Trump term, and that we have a stable and reliable ally and world power at a time when it is needed desperately. Like many Conservatives who traditionally identify with the GOP in the traditions of Eisenhower and Reagan for example, supporting Trump flies in the face of those beliefs. The fact that former Vice President Dick Cheney is voting Harris speaks volumes for the state of things.
Campaigning in the US is like, and yet unlike, our way of doing things in the UK. Going door to door and speaking to target voters was the most familiar part, and I enjoyed quite a few friendly and interesting conversations. Several key themes emerged.
Firstly, the issue of women’s rights and abortion is one that will motivate many female voters to go to the polls this time, and in a way that will favour the Democrats.
Secondly, the state of the US economy will be the main factor in this election, with many people feeling that, despite economic growth, the cost of living and job protection is a real problem for many, which favours Trump. Fear of job losses due to technology and trade competition means that the Trumpian language on tariffs and protectionism is stronger than ever.
Thirdly, as in Europe, the issue of migration and pressure on services has never been more salient, which is why both parties have been toughening up their rhetoric on it. Whilst most pundits thought that Harris won the presidential debate that happened just before my trip, Trump’s comment about Haitian migrants allegedly eating the pets of Springfield, Ohio, has entered the national consciousness. For all those who view it as confirmation that he is nuts, there will be many others who will have been reminded about the question of pressure on housing and other services that mass immigration can cause. This is an issue that the Trump campaign wants to be front and centre in this race, which they believe will motivate supporters to vote.
A ton of money is going to be spent between now and 5 November. My instinct is that most electors have made up their minds, and that the campaigns will now focus on getting their respective votes out in the key battleground states. From my conversations with US politicians, a lot of the parties’ spending will be on making sure that teams of lawyers from both sides will be ready to challenge results in highly contested states. Get ready for yet another election where winning the popular vote does not clear a way to the White House.
It is a strong likelihood that, come the morning after the election night before, minds will be drawn to the arithmetic of the Electoral College and to courtrooms in State capitals, where judges will be preparing to deal with challenges to individual results. Court cases and process challenges are already a key part of this campaign. In Georgia, a key swing state, the State Supreme Court has approved a rule mandating that election ballots are to be hand counted, which will inevitably lead to delay in seeing a certified result. In Nebraska, Republican efforts to end the system of splitting their Electoral College votes according to the parties’ respective share of the vote failed only last week.
The 2024 Presidential election will be decided by fine margins and is likely to make deep divisions even deeper. It is set to stretch US State and Federal election processes to breaking point. Judges, as well as the electorate, will be getting their tin hats on in readiness.
Robert Buckland is an ex-Conservative MP and former Cabinet minister.
PoliticsHome Newsletters
Get the inside track on what MPs and Peers are talking about. Sign up to The House's morning email for the latest insight and reaction from Parliamentarians, policy-makers and organisations.
