Labour’s 2030 target is a pipe dream that will cost taxpayers the Earth
4 min read
It wasn’t quite “Forward, the Light Brigade” but the hollers and whoops of enthusiasm from Labour MPs and climate lobbyists as Ed Miliband steeled them for the charge for the guns of a zero-carbon grid had a ring of “Theirs not to reason why…” about it.
“Half a league, half a league, Half a league onward… Not though the soldier knew / Someone had blundered.”
Indeed, if sheer chutzpah and hot air could keep the lights on in this country, then in Liverpool last month Labour would have succeeded in achieving what no one actually believes is possible – a zero-carbon grid by 2030.
An unachievable target but also an unnecessary, expensive one that will have a detrimental impact on the development of technologies that will actually deliver cleaner energy solutions for the future.
If this arbitrary target is to be met it will require over double the current capacity of solar PV and onshore wind. That is more than three times today’s capacity of offshore wind and around 15GW of entirely new types of low-carbon dispatchable capacity, together with the associated storage and network infrastructure.
We will need to achieve and maintain deployment rates of new, intermittent renewables at least at comparable or historic rates for the next five years. It is simply unachievable and extraordinarily expensive: £116bn to be exact. And all of that from hard pressed bill-payers, already footing the cost of some of the highest energy prices in Europe. To upgrade the grid alone for a target of 2035 will cost £58bn.
The near fourfold increase in demand for electricity is putting the grid under huge pressure. It was already undertaking a massive upgrade based on the previous government’s targets.
No one denies the grid needs upgrading, but the current plans are facing huge levels of hostility from communities overwhelmed by plans to build or upgrade electricity substations, pylons and other associated infrastructure.
Labour has announced plans to reform the planning and consenting regime to enable faster builds – but this ignores the elephant in the room that is Scotland.
There is a disproportionate amount of renewable energy being produced in Scotland, almost a quarter to date with more to come. Approving the multiple ScotWind offshore wind and onshore wind farms, and building the infrastructure all by 2030 will need to be done at pace.
But, unlike England and Wales, planning and consenting for energy infrastructure in Scotland is still governed under the 1989 Electricity Act. It enshrined the right to public inquiry for plans objected to by communities in Scotland – which can hold up projects for months, if not years.
Amending this legislation will require an act of UK Parliament over a devolved competency (not uncontroversial) or devolution of further powers to the Scottish Parliament (equally controversial), will take time, and says nothing of the reaction of those Scottish communities who will feel their rights being eroded.
The 2030 target is wrongheaded. A blunder. It relegates other clean technologies such as nuclear, which have longer lead times, to the sidelines and means there will be a lack of investment and a stall in momentum just when it is needed most.
It will accelerate the decline in the North Sea oil and gas industry – already suffering punishing taxes and a loss of investment allowances as the skilled workforce either leaves or goes overseas.
Ironically of course, so many new technologies and investors in renewables are active in the North Sea. If they leave, then neither the zero-carbon energy target, nor the longer term net-zero target will ever be met.
The target is a false one. Rather like Captain Nolan, waving blithely at the Russian guns at Balaclava, Ed Miliband is urging a charge: “There, my lord, is your enemy…”
He will fail. Though less in a blaze of glory than in ignominy and the British people will pay the cost.
Andrew Bowie, Conservative MP for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and shadow minister for energy security and net zero
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