Labour’s lost voters are at a loss

5 min read10 February

Just three in five people who voted Labour in July would do so again, given the opportunity to turn back time. But these people have not found a new home.

Much has been made of recent polls showing Reform UK neck and neck with Labour. Where is this support coming from?

Lots of it is coming from Conservative voters. Far from marking the low point for the Conservatives in terms of votes lost to Nigel Farage’s party, the 2024 election may have just been the start. In our most recent poll, 13 per cent of 2024 Conservative voters now say that, if they could go back in time to July, they would vote for Reform. More than a fifth (22 per cent) of them say that Reform UK would make the most effective government for the UK and a third (33 per cent) that Farage would make a good prime minister. It seems that many disillusioned Conservative voters have found a new home.

But what about regretful Labour voters? Despite their stonking Commons majority, we know that Labour’s lead amongst voters is narrow. Taking low turnout into account, only 2 in 10 eligible voters cast their ballot for the government – so we might expect a lukewarm performance in the polls, compared to how new governments have historically performed in their first six months. But there is more to it.

Just 3 in 5 (60 per cent) of those who voted for Labour in July would do so again, given the chance to go back in time. Unlike Conservative voters, however, they are much less drawn to a specific competitor (just 6 per cent say they would vote for Reform UK, with similar proportions going to the Greens or Lib Dems). Instead, they just don’t know what they would do. Sixteen per cent say they don’t know how they would vote, or that they just wouldn’t vote at all. Even more telling perhaps, a fifth (21 per cent) responded ‘don’t know’ or ‘none of these’ when asked who would make the most effective government.

This story also plays out in focus groups with 2024 Labour voters who are now undecided. Many of the people we spoke to feel disillusioned by what they have seen from the government so far. In July 2024, they voted for change, but many have lost faith that Labour can deliver. While acknowledging that it has only been six months (and accepting that things may yet improve), as it stands, things do not feel any different than they did under the Tories.

“We need to feel the difference, it needs to impact on our lives. It needs to resonate in our everyday lives, that ‘Oh, I know Labour are back’.” – Laura, Dudley

“I think we needed change, and their manifesto seemed to be the most appropriate and the only one that I thought could be credible... But he’s gone back on all of his words.” – Nick, Dudley

Voters are adamant that they’re not ready to hear from the Conservatives…

“They’d have some nerve having been there 14 years in power ... I think everybody’d just be laughing at them.” – Gary, Bury South

“I think right now, we’re all still mad at them. It’s not been long enough to get over that anger.” – Heather, Bury South

… but so far they aren’t seeing anything from Labour that feels like a different direction (or any direction at all, really):

“They promised the world, they get put in power and then it doesn’t happen. Obviously it takes time, but you should be able to see some snippets of hope.” – Becki, Dudley

The one action that has cut through – the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance from some pensioners – feels symbolic of this lack of change. No matter how dimly they view politicians, the change voters expect when Labour succeed the Tories is a shift towards concern for the vulnerable and the less affluent (indeed, historically, this ‘softness’ has often been considered the brand’s Achilles’ heel). For some of these 2024 Labour voters, the winter fuel allowance policy is evidence that this Labour government doesn’t even offer change from the ‘nasty’ streak many associate with the Conservatives.

“He might be the labour leader, but he’s the most tory labour leader we ever had. Came into power and took the heating allowance off the pensioners.” – Gary, Bury South

This sense of disillusionment, this sense of continuity with the previous government, leaves even lifelong Labour supporters looking for answers elsewhere. Some have started to look at Reform UK and like some of what they’re seeing – a party that knows the current political settlement is broken. Others are not ready to turn to what they see as ‘the far right’ but they’re hoping that someone – anyone – will show them the way out.

“Maybe with this Labour-Conservative battle, maybe it’s time we just squashed it and completely changed direction. Give someone else a chance, I don’t know.” – Laura, Dudley

“I think we need change, and I would go with somebody else, though probably not Conservative, and see if they can do any better.” – Nick, Dudley

Ben Shimshon and Teresa Kun are CEO and Associate Director of Thinks Insight & Strategy respectively.

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