The process of modernisation is influencing the DUP
4 min read
Any deal between the Conservatives and DUP is a chance to remind everyone about how much Northern Ireland has changed, writes historian Lord Bew
One of the most distressing things about being Irish is the way in which many people on the larger neighbouring island make it up as they go along about Irish realities. The English tend to put their own obsessions first rather than giving full consideration to the complexity of Irish life, north or south.
In the past, this could take the form of disturbing ethnic stereotypes of the Irish. We have moved beyond that, but there is still a tendency for the English to let their imagination run free when they contemplate Hibernia. Only a few weeks ago, the British press was full of articles claiming that Brexit had seriously damaged the union in both Ireland and Scotland. Jonathan Powell, Tony Blair’s very able aide during the Irish peace process, allowed himself to say that in the unionist golf clubs post Brexit, a real reconsideration of the value of the union was taking place.
Tony Blair, on a recent trip to Ireland in which he reminded everyone that he had strongly supported the union as prime minister (this absence of neutrality on the issue was the key to his gaining support for the Good Friday agreement), also played with the idea that some unionist reconsideration was underway. In fact the general election demonstrated that unionists, both inside and outside the golf clubs, were as strong as ever on the union, as the DUP majority over Sinn Féin multiplied by a factor of 50 as against the assembly election which had, it must be admitted, shown that Brexit had the capacity to mobilise Irish nationalist sentiment which had been relatively dormant in recent years.
Nevertheless, I hate to say this because it tempts fate, but pace Sir John Major who, like Blair, also felt it necessary to be pro-unionist during the peace process, as someone on the ground in Northern Ireland I see no imminent threat to stability on the streets.
But what of the DUP who now play a more significant role at Westminster? There is no doubt that this party had evangelical Protestant roots and these beliefs can still be found in its assembly and parliamentary party at a significant level. But there is also no doubt of the direction of travel. The work of the political scientist, Professor Jon Tonge, has shown that the process of modernisation is influencing the DUP. A Cambridge economist who had recently met Simon Hamilton, the Stormont DUP finance minister, said that it was like talking to any other technocratic finance minister of a small European country.
The new breed of DUP MP likes to spend more time at Westminster on a wider range of UK issues than in the past. In the 2005-10 parliament, the majority of DUP MPs scored below average in attendance on theyworkforyou.com. This is not likely to happen in this parliament and those who are hoping for a DUP non-attendance on key votes are likely to be disappointed. It was the case for the union – “to which we all owe so much,” said Arlene Foster – not the DUP’s own merits which won them the recent election so emphatically.
But they need to be careful. In 1964-66, it was the unionists’ key 12 votes which made the Wilson government vulnerable and turned Labour sentiment against the Ulster Unionists. This, combined with the passing of politicians like Winston Churchill who remembered the neutrality of the Irish Republic during the war, and the existence of serious civil rights issues and gerrymandering in Northern Ireland, put unionists on the back foot for a generation.
This time, the DUP should make whatever concession is not merely reasonable, but possible, to set up the power-sharing executive again and remind everyone about how much Northern Ireland has changed.
Lord Bew is a Crossbench peer, Northern Irish historian. He is professor of Irish politics at Queen’s University, Belfast
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