The West has been too weak defending Taiwan
4 min read
Think back to early 2022. The emergency flights full of anti-tank weapons, the hastily drafted sanction regimes, the fruitless shuttle diplomacy. Ukraine stands as a reminder that it is best to form policy in response to a crisis before the crisis emerges.
Ukraine stands as a reminder that it is best to form policy in response to a crisis before the crisis emerges. Any move by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) against Taiwan may be some time away, but the best way to deter an aggressor is to take action before their confidence grows.
It is difficult to overstate the risks to the United Kingdom of a conflict over Taiwan. Around 90 per cent of the world’s large container ships pass through the Strait of Taiwan once a year. Every household would feel the economic pain of what could be a $10tn hit to the world economy.
Xi has learnt from Putin’s strategy of dividing western opponents
Beijing is involved in an aggressive strategy, especially across the Global South, which aims to secure international acceptance for its expansionist One China principle. That is to say that Taiwan is part of a single China and that the PRC is the only legitimate government of Taiwan, denying Taiwan’s democracy any distinctive international legal status.
It is essential that this is contested with much determination.
Xi Jinping watched the near-unanimous diplomatic disapproval of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and is seeking to reduce the chances of a similar chorus of condemnation towards any move against Taiwan. If the PRC’s position is accepted, they will use that consensus at a later date to argue that any future coercion of Taiwan, through arms or other means, whether blockade or annexation, would be legal.
There have been moments of crisis in the Taiwan Strait before that have flared up and subsided, in particular after presidential elections on the island. However, there is good reason to believe that any fresh crisis will be more dangerous.
China is more heavily armed than before and is undergoing a military build-up not seen outside of the cold war. The wishes of the two peoples on either side of the Strait are more difficult to reconcile. The Taiwanese have more of a sense of their own identity and democracy, while Beijing has become even more authoritarian. Nor would anyone believe an offer from Xi that would promise to respect Taiwan’s freedoms after watching him dismantle the human rights of Hong Kongers.
The West may be inadvertently encouraging a more aggressive approach by Beijing. In response to Ukraine’s invasion we did not show the level of determined response that would act as a disincentive to Beijing. Xi has learnt from Vladimir Putin’s strategy of dividing western opponents from each other, manipulating our populations, and operating in the grey zone.
The PRC is repeating his attempt to slowly boil the frog. He knows that a gradual increase in aggressive acts avoids a strong strategic response from the West.
Constant incursions into Taiwanese air and sea zones, cyber attacks and information warfare have not been met with a western response in defence of democracy. We have not set agreed red lines around Taiwan. Worrying ambiguities remain. For example, a maritime and air blockade is normally classed as an act of war, but this isn’t clear regarding Taiwan because of its ambiguous international status.
We talk a lot about protecting the status quo with regards to Taiwan. However, we must recognise that Beijing is already actively changing it.
In response to authoritarian regimes that attempt to avoid a decisive western response by breaking down belligerence into less perceptible steps, it may be time for a new doctrine which makes clear that we will assume that any incremental transgressions are a prelude to a large-scale aggression.
The authoritarians have learnt from each other on how to undermine the resolve of democracies. Now we should learn from them.
Blair McDougall, Labour MP for East Renfrewshire
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