Accelerating a sustainable and resilient energy transition
Mike Theobald, Strategic Growth Director for Energy
| WSP
As we face the intertwined challenges of tackling climate change and securing our future energy supply, the urgent need for a sustainable, resilient energy transition has never been clearer.
Moving beyond fossil fuel dependency is crucial, not only as an environmental imperative but to capitalise further on future focussed economic growth and social equity pathways. Business and consumers are demanding swift action to scale up infrastructure investments, bolster energy resilience, and address the existing gaps in policy and strategy.
The case for acceleration
A considerable proportion of current energy transition pathways and policies are yet to achieve the impact needed to make a tangible difference. For example, if we ask ourselves as individuals, “how has my relationship with energy really changed over the last 10 years?”, the answer on balance will be very little when compared to what is needed over the next ten years or so by closing out Carbon Budget 4 in way that sets-up Carbon Budgets 5 and 6 for success. For context, the Climate Change Committee recently advised that only one third of emissions reductions required to meet 2030 targets are covered by credible plans.
We should recognise that some positive gains are being realised. The cost reduction of renewable energy technologies such as batteries, solar and wind generation are leaping forward and Electric Vehicle adoption in the UK is heading towards 20% of new car registrations. Understanding the enablers from early adoption to mature roll out is vital for similar progress across other vectors such as heat pumps, geothermal, small modular reactors. As an example, is the Contracts for Difference process too much of a one-size-fits-all to successfully mix established technologies with those that are still emerging, and which may require different support?
With the accepted position that Carbon Budget 4 will be met successfully, it is likely to mark the end of the “easy transition”. We have been helped by some “easy wins” and single-shot improvements, but some can be reversible. For example, the low carbon interconnector supply boost from the French Nuclear Fleet coming back online is hopefully going to be sustained but we cannot claim this improvement again. Moreover, Ofgem’s recent approval of five new undersea energy links including two groundbreaking Offshore Hybrid Assets that can transmit energy to UK and European Grids are supportive of extending the easy transition and improving resilience.
Critical areas for investment and action
The mantra of electrifying what can be electrified is a lasting beacon for our climate related endeavours. However, to meet this challenge we are having to undertake wholesale replumbing of our energy systems to move energy from where it is either abundant or generated to where it is needed and capture and relocate abated carbon from transitionary technologies to permanent storage. The size of this challenge is monumental, the scale of which has never been done before in compressed timescales such as those needed for our net zero targets.
The Great Grid Upgrade Programme, to modernise infrastructure and enhance the grid’s capacity to integrate renewable energy and the Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage (CCUS) Cluster Programme to abate high carbon emitters are headline enterprises to support decarbonisation and form a key part of achieving our goals. This ambition is matched in size by delivery risk, so seeking ways to mitigate this by decarbonising in ways that do not directly compete for the same supply chain and resources is expected to become equally important.
With the focus until now being in decarbonising energy supply, the focus on how we use that energy efficiently has lagged. This is logical as the largest gains were to focus on the supply side first. However now we have momentum with established and proven technologies, the renewed emergence of decentralised energy and efficient use of that energy is gathering pace, especially if we seek in 10-15 years' time to minimise a further round of large-scale energy infrastructure rollouts after the current delivery programmes are completed.
A collaborative approach to decentralised energy
On the basis that if you do not need it, then you do not need it supplied, the large opportunity is now upon us to have an improved individual relationship with energy. Collectively the decentralised energy opportunity for emissions reductions is as significant as large grid scale developments with the advantage of securing additional resilience and energy security. Consumers (domestic and large organisations alike) now have an array of opportunity to decarbonise their energy load in cost effective ways with returns that turn positive within the timescale of the currently planned infrastructure mentioned above.
As examples and while not every building may be suitable for solar panels, the wider uptake of grid-connected battery energy storage systems (BESS) to be charged when energy is off-peak and heat pumps to provide heat with lower energy consumption during peak hours, offer scalable solutions. Demand-side response measures in residential and commercial sectors aim to achieve a 10 GW peak demand reduction by 2050, with smart charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology expected to reduce peak demand by another 49 GW.
Hydrogen and low-carbon fuels are emerging as transformative solutions for hard-to-decarbonise sectors such as heavy industry and transportation. Expanding grid-scale generation through wind and solar farms, along with advancing energy storage technologies, will further enhance our ability to meet future energy demands reliably.
Influencing peak demand growth
A sizeable proportion of the decentralised energy opportunity directly supports reducing peak demand. Whether that is power generated, hydrogen consumed, or captured CO2 from transition processes, all of these are reduced when demand side load is more efficient, and time of use is optimised. If we look at power generation across a range of forward-looking future energy scenarios, the difference between peak and off-peak demand could exceed 50GW over the next 20 years. The more we can optimise to smooth demand by investing in decentralised energy technologies, the “just to meet the peak” investment can be minimised and the same diverted into those technologies, increasing resilience and energy security at the same time.
Leveraging behavioural and strategic change
“The” Energy Transition needs to become “Our” Energy Transition. Going back to a personal relationship with energy; whether a CEO of a large organisation responsible for strategic direction affecting thousands of individuals or a retired consumer wanting to save on their energy bills, future success will be shaped by broad participation. Willingness to embrace the new technologies available and engage with reciprocal energy agreements that reflect upside for using energy at optimum times and in optimum ways are going to be vital.
The private sector must continue embedding decarbonisation in design and decision-making processes, while the state can leverage its assets to send strong market signals, stimulate sector growth, and build supply chain expertise. UK skills strategies should directly address opportunities for jobs within this sector, enhancing tangible benefits for local economies.
Conclusion
The case for accelerating pathways to a resilient energy transition is clear. With multiple indicators behind expected plan, the current rate of progress is creating a stacked risk that will prove evermore difficult and costly to mitigate. Optimism does prevail however; our toolbox is full of technology that in the main is already mature and established and we are seeing enormous appetite for investment. Collaboration among governments, industries, and communities is key to implementing the necessary policies and strategies. Together, we can create a sustainable energy future that benefits everyone, leaving a cleaner, more resilient planet for generations to come.
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