Where is the plan to support today’s smokers to quit cigarettes for good?
Duncan Cunningham, Director External Affairs UK & Ireland, Philip Morris Limited
There can be no doubt that the end of cigarettes cannot come soon enough. Ridding the world of smoking is the public health opportunity of this century. But, if we fail to map out a sustainable path to a smoke-free future, then it will forever remain out of reach.
Right now in the UK, the conversation around smoking isn’t about smokers. It’s about a generation ban – rightly seeking to protect future generations from ever starting to smoke. A huge weight of political time and capital has been spent on this: a problem that will hardly exist by the time the measure comes into force. Younger generations are already moving away from cigarettes. Smoking prevalence for 18-24 year-olds is such that – if it continues at its current rate of decline1 – they are on course to be the first ‘smoke-free’ (less than 5 per cent) generation in the UK, just a year after the proposed ban begins.
But, curiously, the Bill as it stands does nothing to support people who already smoke to leave cigarettes behind. Where is the plan to help them? That’s exactly the conversation we want to kick-start and that’s why we’re sponsoring this important panel discussion at the Conservative Party Conference (Monday 30 September, 17.30-18.30hrs, Conservative Home Marquee).
What is the best way to accelerate a smoke-free future? It’s a discussion no-one seems to want to have.
As is so often the case, if we’re going to move forward, it’s probably worth looking at where we’ve come from and where we are on smoking.
Smoke-free products have helped fuel the decline in cigarettes
Innovation from manufacturers – in the form of viable smoke-free alternatives – has helped make a significant impact on smoking rates in countries that have successfully embraced their potential over the past decade or more. This is especially true in the UK, which has supported smoke-free products – particularly e-cigarettes – while also placing tighter restrictions on traditional cigarettes, such as the indoor smoking ban, plain packaging legislation and the outlawing of menthol cigarettes.
A landmark report from Public Health England in 2015 concluded that e-cigarettes are at least 95 per cent less harmful than cigarettes and that set civil society’s tone towards them ever since. The MHRA has approved the prescribing of e-cigarettes and a world-first Swap to Stop scheme was also launched in the UK in 20232.
Together, these measures sent a very clear message to adult smokers: smoke-free products are a much better alternative, compared to continuing to smoke.
Thanks to supportive regulation, smoking rates have nosedived in the UK since 2011 – dropping by more than one third3.
No room for complacency
Let’s be clear: we are still a long way away from seeing the end of cigarettes in the UK. More than 6.4m UK adults still smoke and the decline in smoking prevalence has slowed by 30 per cent in the past five years, compared with 2011-20164. While younger adults (18-24 year-olds) are fuelling the continued decline in smoking rates5, this masks the real issue: that smoking rates are barely shifting for the rest of the population6, especially among lower-income groups who are increasingly being left behind7.
On the other side of the fence, we can’t assume that smoke-free products will just automatically replace cigarettes. While e-cigarettes have had the most regulatory backing, they aren’t a perfect solution. This is demonstrated by data from Action on Smoking and Health8 (ASH) which shows that 40 per cent of existing smokers are former vapers. The key takeout here is clear: no single smoke-free product will work for every adult smoker looking to leave cigarettes behind – including e-cigarettes. This is why smokers need equal access to the full range of smoke-free products – so they can find the option that really works for them.
People also need access to accurate information. ASH also found that “in 2023 and 2024 misperceptions about the harms of vaping have risen sharply, with half (50 per cent) of adults in 2024 believing vaping to be more or equally harmful compared with cigarettes, compared with a third (33 per cent) in 2022”.
A very significant proportion of men and women who smoke do not quit9. And at PMI, we are clear that smoke-free products are not risk-free, and they are addictive. But how are we in a position in 2024 where there is no plan to improve these people’s access to – and information about – the full range of smoke-free products available?
We want to find a way forward, involving all the relevant parties – and that necessarily includes manufacturers. Only then can someone who smokes make the informed choice about what is right for them.
1. Based on PMI analysis of existing trend data of 18-24 year-olds’ smoking prevalence using Adult smoking habits in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
2. Smokers urged to swap cigarettes for vapes in world first scheme - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
3. Proportion who were current smokers, all persons aged 18 years and over, UK, 2011 (20.2 per cent) to 2022 (12.9 per cent) Adult smoking habits in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
4. Based on PMI analysis of Proportion who were current smokers, all persons aged 18 years and over, UK, 2011 to 2022 – comparing declines in smoking prevalence in the two periods 2011-2016 (-4.78 per cent) versus 2017-2022 (-3.31 per cent) Adult smoking habits in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
5. Based on PMI analysis of Proportion who were current smokers, all persons aged 18 years and over, UK, 2011 to 2022 – comparing 2017-2022 decline in smoking prevalence of 18-24 year olds (-8.1 per cent) with that of 25+ year olds for the same period (-2.84 per cent) Adult smoking habits in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
6. Ibid
7. Based on PMI analysis of The proportion who were current smokers by socio-economic status group, all persons aged 18 to 64 years, UK, 2014 to 2022 Adult smoking habits in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
8. Use-of-vapes-among-adults-in-Great-Britain-2024.pdf (ash.org.uk) Figure 2. E-cigarette use among current adult cigarette smokers, Great Britain (2013- 2024)
9. Based on PMI analysis of Proportion who were current smokers, all persons aged 18 years and over, UK, 2011 to 2022 which demonstrates an average annual change in prevalence of -4 per cent per annum Adult smoking habits in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
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