Keir Starmer Would Harm Labour’s Chances In Runcorn By-Election, Say Labour MPs
3 min read
Keir Starmer would do “more harm than good” if he visited Runcorn and Helsby before the by-election on Thursday, say Labour MPs who have campaigned there.
The Prime Minister has not visited the Cheshire constituency since the by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Labour MP Mike Amesbury.
PMs have sometimes stayed away from by-election campaigns in recent years, though there have been some exceptions. Boris Johnson campaigned in Hartlepool before the Conservative Party victory there in May 2021, for example.
A spokesperson for Starmer on Wednesday told PoliticsHome that the Prime Minister had "been campaigning throughout this period", adding that "we've got a great candidate in Runcorn in Karen Shore, and we've got a great story to tell". As well as the by-election, local and mayoral elections will take place nationwide on Thursday.
"You will have seen the Prime Minister has been all over the country telling that story," they said, pointing to "3m extra NHS appointments, three interest rate cuts, wages rising faster than prices".
However, they said they had "nothing further to add" when asked whether Starmer would visit the constituency before polling day.
The contest is seen as a two-horse race between Labour candidate Shore and Reform UK's Sarah Pochin. It is the first by-election since Labour's landslide victory at the July general election.
Labour won the seat with 53 per cent of the vote in July, 35 per cent ahead of second-place Reform.
There is a much tighter race expected this time. Since the general election, Labour and Starmer's ratings have fallen, while Nigel Farage's party has led several opinion polls.
Britain Predicts modelling published on Tuesday for the New Statesman put Labour one per cent ahead of Reform, 36 per cent to 35 per cent.
John Healey, the Secretary of State for Defence, this week told a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party that the result was too tight to call and urged Labour MPs to campaign in the seat before polls close on Thursday, PoliticsHome understands.
Several Labour MPs who have campaigned in the constituency said Starmer's current unpopularity would risk hurting the party's chances of retaining the seat, with one saying a prime ministerial visit would do "more harm than good" to their prospects.
"There's a good chance we’ll lose it and then Keir will look like a loser...
"He's not very popular on the door here, but then he never was. Even before 2024, he wasn't a very popular figure," another backbencher said.
During a trip to Runcorn earlier this month, PoliticsHome found that while Starmer was difficult to find in Labour campaign literature, Reform leader Farage featured heavily in his party's material. Kemi Badenoch, whose Conservatives are seen as having no chance in the Runcorn by-election, was also absent from her party's literature.
PoliticsHome understands that Labour campaigners have been told to suggest there are effectively two Reform candidates in the contest: Pochin and English Democrats candidate Catherine Blaiklock, who founded the Brexit Party before falling out with Farage.
“I’m led to believe it’s working wonders on the doorstep”, said one Labour MP.
A Reform UK source said: "Labour are just insulting the intelligence of voters with this low tactic.
Reform are fighting a positive campaign and working hard for every vote."
Cabinet ministers Health Secretary Wes Streeting, House of Commons Leader, Lucy Powell, Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn and Labour Chair Ellie Reeves have campaigned for Labour in Runcorn up to now.
Additional reporting by Tom Scotson.
