Labour braced for ‘substantial’ losses in upcoming local elections, leaked documents show
2 min read
Leaked internal documents show that Labour is predicting one of its "worst local election performances in recent history" in May.
The analysis document, seen by the BBC, said that as many as 315 seats could turn blue on 7 May in a worst-case scenario.
Historic Labour strongholds such as Sheffield and Southampton are among those at risk of switching to the Tories, the document claims.
In total, 118 councils in England will be going to the polls in two months’ time.
The local elections will be one of the first new challenges facing the next Labour leader, with the victor set to be announced on 4 April.
According to the documents, the party “fully expects to lose hard-working councillors and lose control of some councils".
It continues: “In fact, our predictive modelling - outline in more detail in this document- points to substantial losses that may constitute one of our worst local election performances in recent history.”
The analysis considers three different scenarios, with the worst predicting that Labour could lose up to 315 councillors across 10 councils.
Another model, however, suggests the party may lose just 64 councillors and concede control of only four councils.
In every scenario, Plymouth, Harlow in Essex, Amber Valley in Derbyshire and West Lancashire were set to switch to the Conservatives.
And all three eventualities predict an overall loss of councillors and councils for Labour.
But the party still had a chance to make some gains in councils such as Wirral and Burnley.
A Labour Party spokesperson said: "We recognise the scale of the challenge we face on May 7th and we will be fighting for every vote in the local elections.
Meanwhile Labour deputy leadership candidate Ian Murray said: “This report should be an urgent wake-up call for the party.
“We are sleepwalking into disaster if we don’t change, and communities across England will lose dedicated local Labour champions.
“We have to change to become a credible alternative government of the future, not a protest movement of the past. We need to win again so that we can change people’s lives."
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