Tory Voters Jumping To Reform Are The Biggest Group Of Switchers, New Poll Shows

Adam Payne

@adampayne26

A state-of-the-nation poll of over 2,000 people carried out by Thinks Insight & Strategy paints a dire picture for the Tories as Badenoch approaches 100 days as leader of the opposition.

The research, carried out between 29-31 January, found that just 14 per cent of people believed the Conservatives would be the most effective government, while Labour and Reform were tied on 21 per cent. Similarly, when asked who is "offering the most effective opposition", fifteen per cent said Badenoch's Tories while 26 per cent said Nigel Farage's Reform.

The new research asked whether, given the opportunity, respondents would change how they voted in the last election. The biggest single group of switchers from one party to another was those who voted Tory last year and would now support Reform (13 per cent of the Conservative 2024 vote – over half of the Tories’ total ‘lost vote’ of 25 per cent).

While Labour has lost a significant chunk of its July vote (40 per cent said they wouldn’t vote Labour again), those people are more spread across alternative parties, rather than herding to a single alternative.

According to the findings shared with PoliticsHome, Reform and the Liberal Democrats each gained six per cent of Labour’s 2024 vote, while the Tories and the Greens have each gained five per cent. The biggest recipient, however, was 'don't know' (13 per cent).

Well over half of respondents (55 per cent) said that it would take more than one general election for the Tories to be "back in the running". This included 36 per cent of 2024 Conservative voters and 68 per cent of people who voted Reform in July.

A third (33 per cent) said Badenoch's party would be back in the running by then.

When Badenoch succeeded Rishi Sunak as Tory leader, she inherited the major challenge of rebuilding the Conservatives after their devastating election defeat to Keir Starmer's Labour.

Just over three months into the role, the leader of the opposition is under growing pressure to show more signs of progress. The Conservatives have trailed Farage's Reform in many recent opinion polls and there are fears that huge losses await at local elections in May.

A pair of focus groups carried out by Thinks Insight & Strategy to accompany the polling revealed that people continue to have strong negative feelings about the Tories. 

Gary, a 2024 Labour voter who expressed disappointment with the government's performance so far, said the Tories would have "some nerve" criticising Labour.

"I reckon they’d have some nerve having been there 14 years in power, and then, after six months of Labour, going to pounce on Labour. Everybody would just be laughing at them. If we were still in this mess in two years or three years, then that might be justified, but they can’t do it yet."

Similarly, Heather, who switched from the Tories to Labour in 2024, said: "We're all still mad at them [Conservatives]. It's not been long enough to get over that anger."

The findings make for more uncomfortable reading for Prime Minister Starmer, who has seen his ratings and those of Labour fall sharply since entering office last year.

Of the 11 per cent of people who said they regretted how they voted in July, that sentiment was highest among Labour voters (19 per cent).

Meanwhile, net optimism is at -32 — broadly similar to when Thinks Insight & Strategy last surveyed the nation in November 2024 when it was -35.

The findings also further illustrate the electoral threat posed to Labour by Reform, which has prompted government strategists to step up attacks on Farage and his right-wing party.

Labour led by Starmer is tied with Reform led by Farage on who would make the most effective government (21 per cent each).

Nearly half of respondents (48 per cent) said Reform would go from strength to strength, compared to 36 per cent who said the party peaked at the last general election.

In the focus groups, people who voted Labour in July said they were open to backing Reform.

"They’re more for the people. They are more down to Earth. They know the issues that are happening in the country, and I think they seem to be the ones who would sort it out," said Nick, a July Labour voter who was in the 22-25 group.

Laura, a 2024 Labour voter in the 45-plus group, admitted that she was giving more thought to Reform than she had previously. "[I'm] Not sure Nigel Farage is enough to win my vote but it’s definitely something I’d look at more now than I would have a year ago."

However, there were some more encouraging signs for Starmer in the findings.

Nearly half of people (46 per cent) agreed that "no matter how bad a start Labour have had, no other party is ready to form a government at the moment". Twenty-nine per cent disagreed.

Similarly, over half of respondents (52 per cent) said "No matter how I feel about them, the Labour government should be given time to deliver on their agenda,” while 41 per cent said “I would prefer for this Labour government to be replaced by a different party immediately.”

The findings also suggest voters are willing to be patient with Starmer and his ministers as they try to bring about tangible positive differences.

Over half of people (56 per cent) told Thinks Insight & Strategy "even if this government is effective, it will be a year or two after the election before we start seeing much improvement". Thirty-seven per cent expected to see improvements within a year of the election.

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