Trump’s return signals a global shift to the right
3 min read
When looking to Donald Trump’s inauguration, it is tempting to see the political tectonic plates shifting to make way for a populist wave.
An irreversible rise of the right might loom in an ever-lengthening list of countries, from Brexit in Britain to Trump’s re-election, via elections in countries as diverse as Hungary, Slovakia, Italy, India, the Netherlands, Brazil and Sweden.
But before we sound the alarm over the threat to democratic politics, we should consider how public opinion has shifted so far to the right in this slew of countries. Have right-wing political elites succeeded in capitalising on working people’s antipathy to the status quo, political establishment, immigration, deindustrialisation and globalisation?
With the EU in Trump’s sights as a target for tariffs, Meloni might act as a buffer to deflect Trump’s attacks
Public opinion is fickle and capable of influence by politicians. Look back to Trump’s first presidency for an egregious example. A YouGov/Economist poll of Republicans in 2014 found only 10 per cent expressed a positive view of Vladimir Putin. In 2016, after a year or so of Trump’s pro-Putin language, that figure had soared to 37 per cent. Trump’s opinions have consistently shaped the politics of his core base.
The media’s fascination with what they see as the populist phenomenon helps promote that very thing. In the UK, Reform’s success has been amplified by the media’s fixation with the Nigel Farage-Elon Musk bromance (though Musk’s affection seems to be shifting). It is as though the media have already bought into the narrative that Farage will be the country’s next prime minister and are determined to make it happen.
The scandals and incompetence of the Conservatives’ 14-year rule and subsequent self-inflicted wounds by Keir Starmer and the Labour government feed into a plague on both (mainstream) parties in the minds of the electorate.
It is fear about the erosion of cultural identity which allows populism to flourish; the fear of becoming strangers in one’s own country. Trump’s policy to close the border with Mexico will have garnered him millions of votes. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s continuing success has been built on her anti-immigrant policies aided by the decline in support for the Putin-loving Matteo Salvini, her coalition partner.
Meloni has attracted the favourable attention of Trump. She’s visited him at Mar-a-Lago since his presidential election win and was invited to his inauguration. Although Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán is another Trump favourite, he is something of a pariah in the eyes of many EU colleagues for bending the rules of democracy so heavily in his favour. Meloni, however, was recently described by Politico as the most powerful figure in Europe. Her more liberal French and German peers are mired in domestic travails, which will almost certainly see a change in German Chancellor next month, and not many are betting on French President Macron seeing out his full term.
With the EU in Trump’s sights as a target for tariffs, Meloni might act as a buffer to deflect Trump’s attacks. Germany’s car industry stands to be particularly badly affected in a tariff war. If Meloni can mitigate or attenuate the impact of Trump tariffs, she will have more than deserved Politico’s moniker.
As for the UK, the jury’s out on whether Trump’s affection for it, or at least for Scotland, will be enough to exempt it from the tariff wall. Trump has not forgotten how 100 or so Labour party volunteers went to the US last year to campaign for Kamala Harris or when the now Foreign Secretary called him a “neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath”. Forgiven? Let’s see.
The Trump presidency looks set to be the incarnation of the Melian Dialogue: “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”
Sir Ivor Roberts, former UK ambassador to Italy, Ireland and Yugoslavia
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