The United States is not the ally it once was
4 min read
All aboard! The Donald Trump juggernaut has hit the road, engine revving, streamers flying, and vast clouds of hot air emitting from its exhausts. A hundred Joe Biden policies have already been crushed beneath its wheels.
Fuelled by an effervescence of optimism and a brimming tank of newly extracted hydrocarbons, it arrows towards destinations unknown. Panama? Greenland? Mars? Have we ever seen its like?
But that’s enough levity. There are serious questions about how to handle a US president who is openly hostile to the postwar international order, dismissive of international institutions, and openly says the EU is worse than China, and Nato is a scam.
When Trump says 'we can work something out', he means there will be a price to pay
For as long as I’ve been alive, the US has been the guarantor of our security, the protective shield concealing European frailties and inadequacies. The moment has now arrived where Europe must look after itself. Are we ready? At best it’s a work in progress.
The most controversial policy of Trump’s second term may turn out to be his proposed mass expulsion of 10.5 million undocumented migrants. Think of the midnight raids on immigrant neighbourhoods, the children torn from schools, the deportation camps.
But the policies which will impact most on the UK and Europe are likely to be around tariffs, Ukraine, Nato and the Middle East.
Tariffs are Trump’s preferred instrument of coercion and were always bound to be deployed early on. He initially imposed 25 per cent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico – and a 10 per cent rise in current tariffs on China – although he has since agreed to hold off imposing the tariffs on Mexico and Canada after both countries agreed to strengthen their respective US border security.
Next, Trump will take action against the EU because “they treat us very unfairly”. This is already prompting retaliatory tariffs, threatening a trade war which damages everyone. The likelihood is that this will result in reduced global economic growth, job losses, higher inflation and disrupted supply chains, but Trump appears immovable.
Can the UK avoid this tariff carnage? Well, maybe. Trump has said “the UK is out of line” but “Starmer has been very nice” and something “can be worked out”. Unlike Germany, with its huge surplus, our trade is in rough balance with the US and we buy billions of dollars of US military equipment, from F-35s to Apache helicopters. So, damage the UK economy and there’ll be less money to spend on defence.
Even if the UK manages to escape tariffs, trade wars with others will hurt our economy significantly. The threat of US tariffs will hang over us for the next four years. When Trump says “we can work something out”, he means there will be a price to pay; perhaps the UK opening its markets to US agricultural exports – a disaster-in-waiting for British farmers.
On Ukraine, Trump has unsurprisingly stepped back from his claims of an instant ceasefire. But it’s hard to see why Vladimir Putin should do any deal that doesn’t amount to Ukrainian capitulation. He must think that Russia is now winning this war, albeit at the huge cost of 1,200 casualties a day. It is hard to see Volodymyr Zelensky accepting a deal that gives territory over to Russia and stops them from joining Nato. If a ceasefire is within grasp, Trump will expect Europe, not the US, to provide any security guarantees needed to get Ukraine over the line. Regardless, all scenarios look exceptionally difficult for the Europeans.
As for Nato, Trump has bitterly criticised Nato allies for falling short of their commitments on defence spending. Trump can take a victory lap in the first Nato summit of his second term: 23 of Nato’s 32 members are now at two per cent of GDP. But to think that this is problem solved is to misread Trump. It’s not just about the money: Trump fundamentally disagrees with the Article 5 commitment to collective defence – something Moscow will have noticed.
Finally, the Middle East. It’s a mixed picture. Trump’s pre-inauguration urging of Benjamin Netanyahu to commit to an immediate Gaza ceasefire was pivotal – without it, the fighting might still be happening. But to now suggest that Gazans should be forced to leave the territory is seriously destabilising and risks more extremism and conflict.
The certainties of the postwar decades have gone. The United States is not the ally it was. It may be just the next four years, or it may be the new normal. But Europe must be able to do more for itself.
This means painful decisions on defence spending – but it’s been a long time coming.
Lord Darroch, crossbench peer and former UK ambassador to the US
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