Vladimir Putin must fail in Ukraine - and be seen to fail

4 min read19 March 2022

President Vladimir Putin’s brutal assault on Ukraine has naturally focused attention on Nato’s eastern flank and particularly the Baltic states. As the British ambassador to Estonia, the embassy team and I have been responding to the crisis in three main ways

We are working with our Estonian allies to support Ukraine. The extent of the UK’s support to Ukraine is now well known, with both long-term training and equipping over recent years, and the swift provision of additional defensive weapons since the Russian invasion.

Estonia has also been quick to respond, and provided equipment worth more than €220m (about £185m); a significant amount for a country of its size. The UK and Estonia have worked to co-ordinate international contributions, and both countries will continue that support. Personally, I will continue to play an active part in this collegiate international effort, along with the British embassy team here in Tallinn.

There will be an increase in pressure on Vladimir Putin through sanctions and other measures designed to isolate Russia internationally and encourage the end of the aggression. The UK and Estonia have been at the forefront of this effort, working with allies and pushing for the toughest measures possible.

Putin cannot claim to be surprised by this; Prime Minister Kaja Kallas of Estonia warned that aggression against Ukraine would bring “the mother of all sanctions”.

And we will increase the Nato presence here to deter Russian aggression against Estonia and Nato’s whole eastern flank. The UK has been the leading member of Nato’s “enhanced Forward Presence” in Estonia since 2017. This has included leading a battlegroup of around 1,000 personnel with tanks, artillery and other equipment.

I knew when I was applying for this role that working closely on defence and security issues would be an important part of the job; in these current circumstances, that has become even more crucial.

Our ministers have made very clear that our commitment is iron-clad

In response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, we have temporarily doubled our Nato military presence here and stepped up patrols of Baltic airspace. Estonia has significantly boosted its own defence spending; other allies including France and Denmark have increased their support, and we are working with the Estonians on plans to strengthen Nato’s presence in the longer term.

My own role, and that of the British embassy in Tallinn, is to support our military, maximise the impact of our support, and shape how we develop this.

The extent of high-level UK engagement with Estonia in recent weeks has been remarkable. Since November the embassy team has supported visits by the UK’s Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary, Defence Secretary, minister for the armed forces, and the Chief of the Defence Staff. The UK co-ordinates with Estonia through both Nato and the Joint Expeditionary Force (an agile group combining the UK, the Netherlands and all eight Nordic and Baltic nations).

When the Foreign Secretary speaks of “working with fellow freedom-loving democracies to tighten the vice around Putin’s war machine”, Estonia and our other Nato and Joint Expeditionary Force allies are exactly who she has in mind.

Crucially, the UK and Estonia have long shared a similar assessment of the threat posed by Russia, and we agree that, in Ukraine, Putin must fail and be seen to fail. Some of my Estonian colleagues in the embassy, and many of my friends here, remember what it was like living under Russian occupation. The current situation is of course worrying to them and to all of us who call Estonia home.

But Estonia and other eastern flank countries are very different from Ukraine: they benefit from, and contribute to, Nato’s Article 5 guarantee, which holds that an attack on one Nato ally is treated as an attack on them all. Our ministers have made very clear that our commitment is iron-clad. I am proud to be working alongside my colleagues to keep the UK, Estonia, and our other allies safe.

Ross Allen is the United Kingdom Ambassador to Estonia

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