'We Can't Unify Around Nothing': What Next For Scottish Labour?

With just under eight months until the next Holyrood elections, Scottish Labour has once again found itself in the middle of an internecine battle which risks shredding the last of its credibility as a functioning party north of the border.

One insider told The House magazine the civil war had left the party a “laughing stock” and was a “disaster” that ran the risk of it “slipping into oblivion”. It has left the party divided – not only on whether its leader is the right man for the job, but at a deeper level – of how, exactly, it should go about winning back voters from a resurgent SNP.

Scottish Labour has fallen from a great height: having delivered the 1997 devolution referendum which led to the creation of the Scottish Parliament, and buoyed by the electoral successes of Tony Blair, it spent more than a decade as a powerhouse of post-devolution Scottish politics.

As well as securing Holyrood victories in 1999, 2003 and 2006 – and dominating local government – the party could also be relied on to return a bevy of MPs which helped deliver substantial Westminster majorities.

It is why the party’s collapse, triggered by a shock SNP majority victory in the 2016 Scottish elections, has been so stark.

Falling from government to official opposition, before finally landing in third place behind the Scottish Conservatives in 2016, the party is – according to recent polling – supported by just 14% of the Scottish electorate.

If those figures hold until the Scottish Parliament Election in May, the party would lose a further seven of their 23 Holyrood seats – the worst result in its history.

Perhaps more damaging, the party’s current leader Richard Leonard has failed to raise his profile, with a recent poll for The Times finding a majority (53%) of Scottish voters have no opinion of him at all, despite three years in post.

A former trade unionist, and vocal supporter of Jeremy Corbyn, Leonard was elected to Holyrood in 2016 before securing the leadership in late 2017 following the resignation of Kezia Dugdale.

But with Scottish politics dominated by Brexit, independence and now the ongoing impact of the coronavirus pandemic, Leonard has struggled to find his voice.

And growing disquiet about his leadership bubbled over late last month with the resignation of justice spokesperson James Kelly, whose scathing departure letter warned of a “catastrophic result” unless a new leader was found.

A further three Labour MSPs – Jenny Mara, Mark Griffin and Daniel Johnson – joined the rebellion days later, saying publicly they had no confidence in his position.

There appears to be clear evidence that the Scottish people want a referendum. We can’t be continually standing in the way of democracy

Speaking to The House magazine, Johnson said his decision to speak out was motivated by fears a fall into fourth place next May could destroy any hopes of a recovery.

“We desperately need to make a change and, actually, probably most fundamentally I don’t believe that is necessarily about personalities,” he said.

“But, what it is about is whether or not we have that clarity…in terms of explaining ourselves, and we reach out rather than simply thinking that our politics is about showing up at the allotted time in the debating chamber, which is a little bit the mode that we’ve been in.

“I don’t think that’s necessarily about personalities…I have only reached the point that I have and said the things that I have because I have very severe doubts about the ability of the incumbent in order to achieve that, but you know I would be happy to be surprised.

“If that vision is forthcoming and actually provides the thing that we can unify around, we can move on from this, but we can’t unify around nothing.”

Plans to launch a formal vote of no confidence in Leonard’s  leadership were set for a meeting of the party’s executive committee on 12 October, with the group of rebel MSPs hoping it would provide enough time to find a new leader who could reinvigorate the party before May.

But with momentum for the coup tailing off, and a host of trade unions weighing in behind Leonard, the effort was abandoned and the rebel MSPs were forced to withdraw their motion.

Speaking after the meeting, Leonard called for “unity and division” with the party, saying it was time to end “internal plotting”.

For one party insider this very public spat, and the resulting impasse, is the worst of both worlds.

“It’s a disaster for us. Whether you believe we need fresh leadership or not, the way this has been handled – and the public attacks on our leader this close to an election – has made us a laughing stock,” they said.

“How are we meant to go out and sell our party and our leader to the voters when the most press coverage we have received in months is focused on our own MSPs castigating Richard Leonard?

“If they are concerned about our party slipping into oblivion then they’ve got a funny way of showing it.”

But with questions about Leonard’s leadership if not solved then at least averted, the party now faces an arguably bigger challenge to tackle before May.

With the SNP and Scottish Conservatives staking their ground at either ends of the independence debate, Scottish Labour has been left trying to find a middle ground in a political environment which leaves little room for nuance.

“I think we have got to the stage where Labour could present…the best policies ever presented by any political party, and that could go up against an SNP manifesto that said ‘We want independence and to do so you have to sacrifice your firstborn’, and the SNP will win the election,” Labour MSP Neil Findlay said.

“There appears to be clear evidence that the Scottish people want a referendum. We can’t be continually standing in the way of democracy. If people want a referendum then we should enthusiastically engage with that process.

“That doesn’t mean that we support independence. We would be on austerity on steroids, and we don’t want that.

“But we have to come up with a credible proposition.”

While other parties obsess about the constitution, Labour obsesses about people’s jobs and protecting our NHS

While there are strong disagreements within the party over supporting any further referendums, Daniel Johnson agrees that more work needs to be done on presenting devolution as an opportunity to develop common interests across the four nations. 

“I think the moment we talk purely in terms of what powers reside where, then we are essentially on our opponents’ territory.

“What we need to be talking about is what we want to deliver... but also I think how devolution can be different.

“Our position is clear: we’re against independence, and I think for very good reasons in terms of solidarity and the common interest across the United Kingdom. But it is actually about explaining why and what we believe we could do better.”

Delivering that credible alternative will undoubtedly rely on a coherent message from Westminster and Sir Keir Starmer. But, despite the turmoil north of the border, the UK Labour leader has remained largely supportive, at least in public, of Richard Leonard’s leadership, with his only major intervention over Scotland in recent weeks being to firmly restate his unionist credentials and opposition to any future referendum.

His aversion to delving beyond soundbites is likely driven by the fear that any significant engagement will further drive perceptions of Scottish Labour being a mere “branch office” of the UK party. But it is a strategy that comes with significant risks.

Having lost all but one of the Scottish MPs in the December 2019 general election, any path toward a Labour majority in Westminster must include a resurgence in Scotland.

The last remaining Scottish Labour MP, and now shadow Scottish secretary Ian Murray, insists the way to do that is to focus on jobs and the NHS rather than “obsessing” with the constitution.

“We know we have an incredible amount of work to do within Scottish Labour to regain voters’ trust.

“But we are all united by the same goal: rebuilding Scottish Labour and returning Labour to power across the UK, with Keir Starmer as our prime minister.

“While other parties obsess about the constitution, Labour obsesses about people’s jobs and protecting our NHS.

“As Keir has said, it’s in all of our interests to hold the UK together – and dealing with the pandemic has shown that.

But for some in Scottish Labour, the “pig-headed” approach to the constitutional battle risks a further slide into irrelevance.

“It is blindingly obvious that Boris Johnson and Brexit have driven up support for independence and we shouldn’t pretend we don’t see that. This pig-headed approach to a second referendum is not doing us any favours. We aren’t going to outflank the Tories on this,” one party source said.

“If you look at all the data, our supporters switched to the SNP, so that is where we have to focus our fire. The way they have run Scotland has been a disaster – whether it is the NHS, education or transport. 

“But until we have a coherent policy on the constitution then no one is going to listen to us. It’s time to put away the sledgehammer and pick up the scalpel.”

For Daniel Johnson, that means the UK party should take a bigger role in speaking out about Scotland and stop treating them as the “awkward relatives”.

“Rather than say the wrong thing, they say nothing, and there is silence in the room.

“You know that doesn’t really work and we need, I think, a much more constructive relationship and dialogue.

“If we don’t see recovery for the Labour party in Scotland then the challenge we face in forming another UK government is huge. 

“Without recovery in Scotland we would need such a large swing that we’d be needing to take seats like Jacob Rees-Mogg’s in Somerset. Now I look forward to the day when that becomes true but I think it is quite far out in the distance.

“We need some real focus, we need cooperation, and fundamentally the Labour party needs to demonstrate the value of working together across the United Kingdom and we need to do that as a party, so that we can convince people that we can do that in government, both in Holyrood and in Westminster.” 

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