By-election breakdown - For the many not the moo
John Johnston & Sam Webber
| PoliticsHome
PoliticsHome's by-election breakdown is back in business. Join us every week as we give you the run down on who's in, who's out, who's lost the plot.
There is plenty of discussion about whether MPs who have this week resigned their party membership should submit themselves to by-elections but we are here to give you the inside scoop on the only upcoming contests that matter. Niche local by-elections.
There have been nine ballot blockbusters so far in 2019 with three seats changing hands. These were a gain by ‘Aspire’ from Labour in Tower Hamlets, a Labour gain from an independent in Buckinghamshire and a Liberal Democrat gain from Labour in Bradford. We take a look ahead at this weeks' round of contests.
CARDIFF UA; Ely
(Lab died, 4 candidates: Con, Plaid, Lab, LD)
2017: Lab 1472, 1380, 1269; PC 786, 745, 622; Con 509, 507; LD 267, 97, 84; TUSC 64
2012: Lab 1597, 1481, 1468; PC 791, 776, 767; Con 237, 236, 230; Grn 115; LD 95, 83, 75
We are off to Cardiff for the first by-election of the week following the death of Labour councillor Jim Murphy. The 72-year-old former steelworker had represented the Ely ward since 2012.
And it is likely that the seat will stay Labour when the votes are counted this evening with local resident Irene Humphreys looking to keep the red flag flying here. Ms Humphreys, who has lived in the area for 50 years, has had a phalanx of Labour activists and local MPs out knocking on doors and delivering leaflets for her.
Speaking of leaflets, this one is a classic. She opens it with a thinly-veiled jab at her carpetbagging opponents, gives a thorough rundown of her trade union credentials and climaxes with a quote widely attributed to Margaret Thatcher. It’s a bold strategy cotton, lets see if it pays off.
But it’s probably safe to assume that if she does win she won’t be biggest supporter of the Dear Leader given she is retweeting Owen Smith’s excoriating attack on Jeremy Corbyn’s record on the EU: “This is why Corbyn was always going to facilitate Brexit if he could: because he’s always believed in escaping the ‘European Empire’. But he voted ‘Remain’, of course....”
But hot on her heels is the Plaid Cymru candidate Andrea Gibson. Ms Gibson is fighting the “rubbish strategy” with a social media feed full of pictures of abandoned fridges, littered lanes and cluttered commons. Wandering around, pointing at piles of fly-tipping, while looking miserable and shouting furiously at a camera is a good way to give a bloody nose to the local council and an incumbent party candidate - and has the benefit of giving the rest of us some campaign video gems.
In a strange twist - Ms Gibson appears to be getting a major boost from local Welsh Assembly Member Neil McEvoy. The only problem? Mr McEvoy is a suspended member of Plaid with a laundry list of controversies behind him. Plaid's central campaigning office have asked local activists not to work with him, but they appear to have ignored them. Could this local political heavyweight get them over the line? Maybe?
Also wasting ink on the ballot paper are Lib Dem candidate Richard Jerrett and former Conservative researcher Gavin Brookman who has journaled his by-election efforts in a series of dreich blurry selfies.
Prediction: Labour hold
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE CC; Oundle
(Con sitting as Ind resigned, 4 candidates, Con, LD, Lab, UKIP)
2017: Con 2608; Lab 956; LD 420
2013: Con 1849; UKIP 677; Lab 573; LD 225
This by-election in the Oundle division of Northamptonshire County Council follows the resignation of the former Conservative leader Heather Smith on New Year’s Eve. The Council was branded the "worst-run council" in 2018 after it ran out of money which is probably not going on the top of her CV.
A report into the situation at Northamptonshire CC ordered by the then MHCLG Secretary Sajid Javid, recommended that the failing authority and Northamptonshire’s seven other councils be merged into two new entities.
Consequently May 2020 will see the first elections taking place for two new unitary authorities here. One covering Daventry, Northampton and South Northamptonshire and the other covering Corby, East Northamptonshire, Kettering and Wellingborough.
Heather Smith said when she resigned that the time had come to put "horrendous events of 2018" behind her and to "move on". Presumably to let someone else clear up the mess. And stepping up to the plate is a candidate with a made-for-a-seat-on-a-rural-Tory-council name Annabell Lucy De Capell Brooke.
We will find out this evening what the voters make of the situation, but previous election results in this division point to a comfortable Conservative hold. Oundle is within the marginal Conservative constituency of Corby, held by Brexit supporter Tom Pursglove. The Corby district voted 64.2% Leave with 35.8% Remain on a turnout of over 74%.
Although not all of her potential constituents have been overly pleased to hear from her…
She has also faced criticism in the local press for failing to attend meetings in her other role as a District Councillor on East Northants Council. Of the 24 meetings in 2018, De Capell Brooke only attended nine.
Meanwhile, Labour candidate Harry James has been out fighting valiantly, even boasting that he had signed up some local members:
Unfortunately for Mr James the only potential new Labour members we can see in his tweet are cattle. For the many not the moo?
Completing the quartet of candidate is UKIP’s Allan Shipham. Tweeting under the name @Big_Boss_Al, Mr Shipman says that “liblabcon only pay attention when they think @UKIP is a threat” and adds that this by-election is their chance to “send a message to Westminster”. Hardly a new line from UKIP but perhaps they had some of those old leaflets gathering dust in the back of the office.
Prediction: Conservative hold
A massive credit goes to our fellow council by-election fanatics on the Vote UK Forum where we got our previous vote totals from.
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