NEW By-election Breakdown 22/03/2018

Following a tough week last week where we only managed a single correct prediction out of three contests, today we have seven contests to ponder. We watch these results with interest, as we’re now only six weeks out from the local elections on 3rd May which sees elections for all 32 London boroughs, 34 metropolitan boroughs, 68 district/borough councils and 17 unitary authorities. 

Additionally there will also be elections for the Mayoralties of Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets and Watford. The Sheffield City Region of South Yorkshire will elect its first Mayor as well.
 

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Aylesbury Vale DC, Central and Walton Ward (Conservative resigned, 5 candidates: Lab, Ind, LD, Con, Green)
2015 election results: Con 1075/944, LD 752/570, Lab 625/427, UKIP 567/481, Green 280/211

This seat probably presents the best chance of a gain for the Liberal Democrats from this week’s seven contests. 

The ward map for Aylesbury Vale District Council is a sea of Conservative blue, with the exception of a couple of Labour councillors, 4 independents and a total of 10 Lib Dems. The Lib Dem strength is focussed largely on the five wards in the town centre which share a border with this Central and Walton Ward. 

Under old boundaries this area was Lib Dem up until 2011, when it was very narrowly won by the Tories. We suspect it will be won by the Lib Dems in this by-election.

 

 

Prediction: Lib Dem Gain

Midlothian UA Penicuik Ward (Labour died, 4 candidates: Green, Con, SNP, Lab)
2007 election results:SNP 2307(1), Lab 1554(4), Lib Dem 1001(6)/974, Con 694, SOL 64, SSP 62
2012 election results: SNP 1427(1)/706(5), Lab 1363(2) , LD 562, Con 474, Green 237
2017 election results: Con 1517(1), Lab 1412(1),SNP 1212(5)/828, LD 425, Green 329
note:First preference votes. The stage at which successful candidates were elected is in brackets

Jeremy Corbyn found himself this week exiled to a cold and inhospitable place. No, not Russia. Scotland. 

The Labour leader has been out on the doorstep in this ward with a gaggle of activists, in what must be a pretty major boost for Vivienne Wallace, the candidate. He was joined by Scottish Leader Richard Leonard, and the two of them led a crack team of what appears to be nursery age children onto the streets of Midlothian. 

 

 

This seat really is a three-way fight tonight, and the SNP are in with a hot chance of scalping Labour. As a result they have been out fighting hard on the streets. Scottish by-election fixture Margaret Ferrier has once again been out on the campaign trail. We are honestly not sure how she can remember which ward she is in from week to week. Joining Margaret on the doorstep has been SNP heavy weight Deputy First Minister John Swinney and whole raft of other MSPs. Normally a sign that the party are pretty confident of victory.
 

 

The Tories, who are also in with a shot here have managed to tick off the strictly enforced Scottish Conservative campaigning checklist:
#TeamRuth - check
Cute dog out on the doorstep - check
Bash the Indyref2 warning button - check

 

 

As you will all be aware, the Scottish by-election voting system is not a mathematical calculation, and the final vote transfer is ultimately decided by a group of wizards residing in Dunottar Castle. We think the runes might fall in the SNPs favour for this one.

Prediction: SNP GAIN

Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Leek West Ward (Conservative died, 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind)
2007 election results: Con 813/802/717, LD 724/625/478, UKIP 482, Lab 176
2011 election results: Con 687/612/527, LD 576/364/322, MDA 474/457/274
2015 election results: Con 1157/994/921, Lab 697, MDA 506/490, Green 400, LD 380, Ind 293/184
Note:  MDA = Moorlands  Democratic Alliance

This presents an interesting contest in the Staffordshire town of Leek. This will most likely be a hold for the Conservatives. The ward falls within the constituency of Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley. Whilst in the past this ward has elected Lib Dems, it has become a relatively safe Conservative ward. 

 

 

The Independent candidate Stephen Wales is a former Conservative Town Councillor and has been interviewed by a local tv station about local issues which dominate his campaign. It will be interesting to see how his campaign is received but we predict it will be a Conservative hold in Leek.

Prediction: Conservative Hold
 

Thurrock BC, Ockenden Ward (Independent elected as UKIP resigned, 3 candidates: Con, Thurrock Inds, Lab)
2014 election results: UKIP 1203, Con 789, Lab 566, LD 67
2015 election results: UKIP 1991, Con 1297, Lab 1224
2016 election results: UKIP 1038, Con 634, Lab 558

It is not to be a good time to a UKIP supporter, especially in the former stronghold of Thurrock - the site of their 2015 manifesto launch. All 17 UKIP councillors quit the party in January citing the “aggressive and bitter reality of party politics,” and that was just their own meetings. The Kipper group have now transformed into the Thurrock Independents and are standing in a candidate in this contest. It is unclear whether they are seeking independence for Thurrock from the rest of the UK. As the French would say, Les Strange….    

…..which entirely coincidentally is the name of the Labour candidate standing in this seat. Unfortunately for Labour, their opportunity to take advantage of the UKIP chaos has been hamstrung by their candidates involvement in one of those darned social media scandals. Mr Strange’s facebook page was found to have contained a number of shared posts which described refugees as savages, made fun of Islam, and pictured people in ‘black-face’ makeup.

Luckily Mr Strange decided upon presentation of the posts that he had completely changed his mind. He told the local Thurrock Gazzette: “I unreservedly apologise for inappropriate social media posts I have shared in the past.

"These were made several years ago and in no way reflect my views.

"I will never share such material again, and apologise to anyone offended by my previous posts." 

Laughing all the way to the ballot box are the local Conservatives, who now seem likely to scoop the seat. They have even gone as far to get their own slightly odd and incomprehensible hats made..

 

 

The local Tories are not even deterred by a skip bearing Corbyn’s name which has been parked opposite a polling station. Let’s hope no Labour voters stick their votes in there by accident!

 

 

Prediction: Conservative Gain
 

Bassetlaw DC, Worksop SE Ward (Labour resigned, 3 candidates: LD, Con, Lab)
2012 election results: Lab 1232, Con 179
2014 election results: Lab 1071, UKIP 393, Con 94, LD 50
2015 election results: Lab 1798/1632/1494, UKIP 807, Green 330, Ind 264

With UKIP all but finished this is a safe Labour seat and previous elections above there is little chance of a challenge to the incumbent party here. 

The general election in this constituency of Bassetlaw however did highlight return of two party politics with both John Mann, the winning Labour candidate and his Conservative opponent winning 95.9% of the vote between them. A Lib Dem and an independent made up the rest of the ballot paper, both clearly polling well below the 5% deposit threshold. 

It will be interesting to see how much of that is reflected here in this by-election. We suspect it will be a comfortable hold for Labour

 

 

Prediction: Labour Hold

Chiltern DC Ridgeway Ward (Independent died, 3 candidates: Lab, LD, Con)
2007 election results: Ind 573, LD 102, Con 85
2011 election results: Ind 669, Con 118,LD 109, UKIP 32
2015 election results: Ind 808, Con 283, LD 228

 

 

This contest throws up an interesting dilemma as the ward has been held for many years by Derek Lacey who sadly passed away recently aged 75. He had been involved in local politics in this part of Buckinghamshire since the 1980s both as a Residents candidate and then an independent. 

It is interesting no other independent has come forward to take up this mantle so it is a three way contest between the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems. We suspect it could be a close run thing but are inclined towards a gain for the Conservatives here and their candidate Nick Southworth.

 

 

Prediction: Conservative Gain
 

Cheshire East DC Bunbury Ward (Conservative sitting as Independent resigned; 4 candidates: Con, LD, Lab, Green)
2011 election results: Con 1173, Lab 480
2015 election results: Con 1864, Lab 470, Green 320

A dull one to close off the evening. When all the other parties vote totals don’t add up to even 50% of yours, you probably don’t even need to bother getting off the sofa to canvass. The candidate who had originally been elected as a Tory turned independent and then resigned. So even though this one is a sure thing for the Cons, it will still technically be a Conservative gain. Not that that will stop the usual twitter cooing when the result goes up.

Interesting candidate names are always a family favourite for by-election geeks and this week we have a cracker. Looking to shake off the Liberal Democrats ‘Metropolitan Elite’ image is Mark Peregrine Ireland-Jones….Doubt he will be printing that in full on his election leaflets.

Prediction: Conservative Hold

A massive credit goes to our fellow council by-election fanatics on the Vote UK Forum where we got our previous vote totals from.

So far we have predicted 68 out of 86 results correctly.

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