Labour Voters Are Slightly Optimistic About The Economy, Poll Suggests
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is delivering her first Budget next week (Alamy)
3 min read
There is fragile optimism among Labour voters that the economy will improve in the next year, according to new polling.
Research carried out by Opinium and shared with PoliticsHome shows that nearly four months after the General Election, those who voted Labour on 4 July are still cautiously optimistic about the state of the economy.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves next Wednesday will deliver her first Autumn Budget and the first Labour Budget in more than 14 years.
Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer have repeatedly stressed that they will need to make “difficult decisions” at the Budget to repair the public finances and fill a “£22bn black hole” left by the previous Tory government. Reeves is expected to announce tax rises and cuts to departmental budgets when she takes to her feet on 30 October.
In recent weeks, however, ministers have been accused of being too gloomy about the state of the country, and Reeves is under pressure to convey a more optimistic message about the UK's future in her first fiscal event as Chancellor.
According to the Opinium poll, carried between 16-18 October, more people who voted Labour on 4 July (38 per cent) feel the economy will improve in the next 12 months than people who think it will get worse (30 per cent).
Opinium’s Political and Social Research Executive, Calum Weir, said Labour has "kept some degree of confidence" among people who voted for Keir Starmer's party at the election — but stressed that it is fragile confidence.
“While Labour’s honeymoon appeared to last about a week, there is still a shaky belief amongst those who voted for them that things will improve,” he told PoliticsHome.
“Whether you think that this is a sign of faith in Labour, or one last line of defence waiting to be broken, it does represent an area where Labour has kept some degree of confidence amongst its voters.”
The poll indicates a downbeat public mood ahead of next week's Budget.
Only 19 per cent of the 2,050 people who responded to the survey said the economy will get better in the next 12 months, while 49 per cent think it will get worse.
Separate research carried out for PoliticsHome earlier this month to mark 100 days of Labour in office also detected high levels of public pessimism.
Research carried out by Thinks Insight and Strategy found that net optimism had fallen to -35 down from -7 in the days immediately following the election. Among people who voted for Starmer's party in July, net optimism had fallen from +41 to -11.
However, the research also found that a large majority of Labour voters who were disappointed by the Starmer Government's first few months in power felt that the new Labour administration could still turn it around.
Of the 2024 Labour voters who said the party's performance in office so far had been bad, three quarters (74 per cent) said there is "at least a small chance" they will be able to turn it around before the next election, according to data.
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