Both main parties are set to struggle in these local elections amid an anti-politics mood
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage visiting shops in Ramsgate in Kent on the local election campaign trail, April 2025 (PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo)
5 min read
You could, if you were so minded, make the case that this set of local elections aren’t that significant.
While the elections on 1 May will cover 23 councils, six mayoralties and one parliamentary by-election, they’re by some distance the smallest in recent history.
They are also only happening in England, with multiple new mayoral contests meaning we have limited comparative data. And the by-election taking place is because the sitting MP punched a constituent – which provides reasonably important local context particular to that seat. It is also several years until the next general election.
The Conservative Party and Labour are certainly trying to downplay their significance. Locals are often used as a form of protest vote, they argue, and we know that turnout will be much lower than at the general election. Meanwhile, with the Conservatives defending just over seven in 10 council seats available – and from a high watermark of the 2021 ‘vaccine bounce’ – losses for them are to be expected.
But don’t believe the briefings. Elections are always important and these offer the first real sense of where the voters are since last July’s general election. There will be plenty for us to learn from them.
Decline of the two main parties
Both two main parties nationally – Labour and the Conservatives – are expected to struggle.
Labour is in government now, and four in 10 think they are doing a bad job running the country, with 59 per cent saying that things in Britain are heading in the wrong direction. The public are also highly pessimistic about the state of the economy. In fact, Ipsos’ Economic Optimism Index, which has been running since 1978, has just recorded its lowest rating ever – in a period including the winter of discontent, the financial crash of 2008 and the Covid-19 pandemic. It is not a good time to be an incumbent party of government.
And yet it is the Conservatives, rather than Labour, who promise to be the biggest losers on Thursday. They are defending 1,182 seats to Labour’s 336 so have further to fall. Ipsos post-election analysis showed that the Conservatives lost one in four voters from 2019 who voted in 2024 to Reform UK. They promise to be similarly vulnerable to Nigel Farage’s party again this week – which is why his party could be the big winner emerging from these elections.
Reform on the rise?
Current polling suggests that Reform UK are likely to win hundreds of council seats this week and potentially the Runcorn and Helsby by-election too. Polling also suggests that Andrea Jenkins could become Mayor of Lincolnshire as well. Others could follow.
Their momentum looks very real. Dissatisfaction with Labour and the Conservatives is clear, whilst immigration continues to be the number one issue on the minds of Reform voters. Ipsos polling also shows the proportion of voters who are confident in Reform UK’s ability to run the country is similar to those saying the same about Labour (35 per cent vs 33 per cent). Confidence they can run local councils is the same as for Labour and the Lib Dems (all 34 per cent).
Yet with success will come scrutiny. Reform UK mayors and councillors, once in office, will need to show they can deliver the change they promise. The public have doubts, as evidenced by our recent polling suggesting one of the main concerns the public have with the possibility of Nigel Farage as prime minister is that Reform UK do not have the talent to run a government. There are also doubts more generally that Reform have the right policies on issues beyond immigration, such as on the economy or public services. Reform is often seen by the public as most likely to have the best policies on immigration but less so on other issues.
To some extent, however, we are getting ahead of ourselves. The conditions are there – particularly in legacy industrial and mining areas across the north of England – for Reform to do well this week. If that happens, these elections could well be a significant milestone in a journey to further progress in future elections too – in Wales and Scotland next year and general election to come.
Lib Dems and Greens
What about other parties? The Lib Dems and Greens are unlikely to be the story on election night, but they are worth watching too. Ed Davey has claimed he wants the Lib Dems to be the party of middle England, as they seek to consolidate support in areas they won from the Conservatives in the south of England last July. The Greens will want to similarly consolidate support in areas they did well and will have their eyes on the West of England mayoral race too.
Even where the Greens and Lib Dems to do not win seats, watch also where they take votes from Labour. Our polling suggests one in three Labour voters from 2024 are favourable towards each party. With Labour voters more concerned about issues like poverty and inequality than your average voter, the party is vulnerable to their left flank as well as their right.
Final thoughts
All of which points to an interesting set of elections this week. The significance of them should not be overplayed but they should not be underplayed either. They will give a good sense of where we are less than a year after the general election – and that doesn’t look like it will bode well for Labour and the Conservatives.
Keiran Pedley is director of politics at Ipsos
