When our cities are strong, populist parties like Reform suffer
3 min read
There is a feeling in Westminster politics that investing in our cities risks creating resentment in nearby towns. But our data shows that simply isn't the case. Where cities have performed stronger, populist politics has suffered.
The government has the makings of a bold plan for economic growth, and it will add to it further in the coming months. So, it will be a missed opportunity if the fallout from the local and mayoral elections distracts from its plan.
Unlocking the economic potential of the UK’s big cities – in particular the cutting-edge industries clustered in their city centres – is central to the success of the government’s economic strategy.
But there’s a perceived political risk that investing in the growth of big cities will make small, nearby towns resentful at falling further behind their larger neighbours. That resentment was embodied in the past by Brexit and now by the rise of populist, non-mainstream parties like Reform UK.
But the data says something very different. The issue for much of the country isn’t the success of big cities; in fact, it’s the opposite. The underperformance of large UK cities means that, whilst they do generate prosperity for some nearby places, they aren’t able to generate enough prosperity for lots of nearby places.
And those places with less access to the prosperity big cities generate show stronger signs of economic disenfranchisement, as analysis of voting and commuting patterns by Centre for Cities demonstrates.
In Greater Manchester, Altrincham and Sale West to the south of the city centre has a higher share of residents commuting to the city centre than Stalybridge and Hyde, to the east of the city-region: 9.4 per cent compared with 6.1 per cent. In relatively affluent Altrincham and Sale West, just under 10 per cent of the vote went to Reform in 2024, compared with over 20 per cent in Stalybridge and Hyde.
This pattern is repeated across big cities in the Midlands and the North of England: places with fewer residents that work in the nearest city centre typically had higher shares of voters for Reform in 2024 and were more in favour of Brexit in 2016.
Other examples include Ashfield, near Nottingham, which voted for Reform UK in 2024 by a majority of over 5,000. Reform UK also held a quarter of the vote in 2024 in Tipton and Wednesbury in the West Midlands, near Birmingham.
Mainstream parties in Westminster – particularly after Thursday's local elections – will need to address the misconception that increasing cities’ prosperity comes at the expense of nearby towns. That misconception leads to a ‘jam-spreading’ approach where resources are spread thinly and no single place lives up to its potential.
The way to avoid this is by explicitly backing growth in big cities’ economies. Until major cities’ economies are performing as they should, we’ll carry on seeing people in cities’ hinterlands neglected and locked out of opportunity.
The government has already made promising interventions. Cities already benefit from the devolution of transport, planning, and skills powers out of Westminster, but devolution needs to go further. The OBR forecasts that the government’s plans to build more homes, particularly if they are built in and around the big cities, will deliver higher growth. The industrial strategy is due in June, which should prominently involve the big cities.
It will do no favours to left-behind places if it waters these plans down.
Andrew Carter is Chief Executive of Centre for Cities.
