Insurance assessment of politics 2015
With the general election less than a year away, the country's insurance professionals are looking at the future trends that will affect their industry.
The Scottish independence referndum, the possibility of another coalition after the 2015 general election and the propsed in/out referendum on EU membership are all considered in a new report from Cicero Group for the
Chartered Insurance Institute(
CII).
The report was launched at a
CIIevent earlier today.
"For the next year there will be a bombardment of noise about the forthcoming UK general election – much of it aimed at the financial services sector but of superficial importance," said David Thomson,
CII's director of policy and public affairs.
"The majority of the commotion will be confusing and contradictory, with the feeling of a running commentary on the latest twist in polls or some internecine spat on an obscure area of policy.
"This report takes a different vantage point. It is an attempt to look at the big trends that face all of us, whatever the result of the election or various referenda - planned or possible.
"It tries to go beyond the usual line by line dissection of manifestos and policy documents, looking instead at the big trends facing the next government, whatever its complexion."
The Cicero/
CIIreport focuses on the "big signals" for financial services going forward, such as a new phase of austerity; interest rate rises and their impact; dealing with the unwinding of Quantitative Easing; housing stock shortages; potential energy supply instability and linked political instability across the globe; and continuing demographic challenges for retirement provision and long term care.
It also considers public trust in the financial services sector.
Report editor John Rowland said:
"There are certain facts of life about the UK that we have grown used to: There are two major parties: one on the left and one on the right; we are a political union of nations; we are a member of the EU (even if we complain about it); the first past the post system gives us strong stable majorities; we are pro-business and we are pro-markets.
"Each one of these assumptions is being chipped away at in their own way. Taken individually, each of these changes are important, but taken collectively they mark quite a major departure from the status quo.
"These risks are long-term. They won’t be resolved by the result in 2015, but the policy response to them might be. The lack of certainty about what that response will be is the source of considerable risk and the financial sector should not ignore them."
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